Matt McCarten: On the back foot since the Budget disappointment

Matt McCarten

Parliament is in recess for the next four weeks. Labour will use the
break to get its MPs sweeping the country selling the Government's
achievements and working their local electorates. Labour will be hoping
it can arrest the fallout from the Budget and get back on message.

National
only got the lucky break because Michael Cullen made a rare mistake by
not closing down media speculation about tax cuts before announcing the
Budget.

If Cullen had said before the Budget that the
Government would not be reducing taxes because they were committed to
sustainable investment in health and education, there would have been a
universal yawn, and support may well have gone up.

But once
the media pre-election hype proved to be false, the press gallery
turned on the Government, and it has been on the back foot since. But
Labour can take heart in the fact that, even with all the current
polling hype, the party has maintained the same polling support it had
at the last election. The difference is that there has been a collapse
of the centre-right vote from Act and United Future back to National.
The combined support for the two big parties is a record high - at
about 80 per cent.

The other six parliamentary parties are
fighting over the remaining 20 per cent. MMP was supposed to make it
easier for third parties, but recent polling shows the two main parties
getting more votes between them than they used to get under the old
first-past-the-post elections.

At the moment, Helen Clark has
a crucial advantage over Don Brash that may prove decisive; she knows
when the election will be and he doesn't. National and the other
parties have had to prepare to fight a possible July election and have
fired off a lot of their election armoury.

With the opposition election strategies exposed, Labour now has time to counter them before the election proper.

If
Labour can get back on track, the National and NZ First poll surge will
recede. In a month's time, if National has dropped back a couple of
points behind Labour, and NZ First is back near 5 per cent, then Labour
is saved and should win the election.

Helen Clark and Don
Brash both know this. That's why in Parliament this week no quarter was
given by either leader. In a rare move, they were both ordered out by
the Speaker for misbehaving. This election battle will be the most
bruising election ever.

An observation was made in newspapers
this week that New Zealand should have a four-year term with a set
election date to ensure electoral stability.

Given the recent
electoral turmoil, there is a stronger argument that if a Government
can fall at any time, they are more attentive to public opinion. In
fact, I would argue that we could have elections annually to keep any
Government accountable to the people.

But this election isn't
about the people or policies, it's about political power. Let's face
it, apart from the tax cut debate, name any real difference on the key
issues between Labour and National.

In fact, apart from the
Greens, all the parliamentary parties have accepted the ideology of
Rogernomics. When was the last Parliamentary debate you heard about the
wisdom of having much of our economy controlled offshore; or propping
up George W Bush's foreign policy; or providing a free education
system; or giving workers a decent wage?

Even the tax cut
argument is dishonest. National provides no details or timeline, and we
all know that any tax cut will only benefit the rich. When has a tax
cut ever benefited the working class? If people are honest, they know
tax reduction means cuts to health and education services.

Brash's
claim that the rich can have a tax cut with no effect on health and
education services is confirmation he's just another political huckster
selling political snake-oil. Beware old men desperate for power.

To
be fair to Brash, he is a committed capitalist ideologue, but his
trouble is that Labour accepts the same economic principles, too. Even
opposing Labour's social agenda is difficult for Brash because he
agrees with an individual's right to live as they wish without the
state legislating people's values.

Labour needs to settle
things down over the next month. It needs to get rid of controversial
legislation on the parliamentary agenda, and it must call off Mallard's
Wananga campaign.

Labour will be hoping that when voters
realise there isn't any real difference between the two main parties,
they will stick with Tweedle Dee.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY