Matt McCarten: Labour likely to rule again

The election is 20 weeks away at most. A couple of weeks ago Labour looked as if it could rule in its own right. But the latest poll shows the gap has narrowed between the two main parties, making the minor parties' mix critical to the formation of the next government. So who is likely to get the vote? And who is likely to go to bed with whom? Here's my assessment of the likely outcome.

LABOUR: If life was fair this Government should romp home. But Helen Clark's apparent campaign to oust Peter Doone as police commissioner will hurt. Similarly, Trevor Mallard may well win his vendetta against te Wananga O Aotearoa and its chief executive Rongo Wetere, but his bovver boy campaign will damage the Maori and liberal vote.

The fight by workers for better wages may hurt or help Labour's chances depending on how the unions and Labour manage workers' expectations.

Labour is expecting a boost from the budget, but the current opposition attacks are crowding out its pre-budget campaign. If it doesn't get a big "feel good" rise from the Budget, Labour is in trouble.

On election day, Labour will get 41-43 per cent. Jim Anderton can be counted as a Labour MP making a combined total under 44 per cent. That will mean Labour will need possibly two coalition partners.

NATIONAL: Don Brash and National are currently riding high on the shirt-tails of Winston Peters. Brash's economic politics aren't supported by mainstream New Zealanders but it has shored up his party faithful and killed off Act.

If National can get near 40 per cent before election day and Act survives, the Nats could just pull it off, as Peter Dunne says United Future will go with them if National gets more votes than Labour. But I suspect even on a good day they may get a high of 37-39 per cent. That means they could rule only with the support of NZ First, ACT and United Future.

NZ FIRST: NZ First should be the kingmaker again. Peters knows that if he goes with National he and his party are finished. They will go with Labour, so Peters can present NZ First as the true centre party able to work with either major party. They can put the brake on Labour's liberal agenda and therefore seem relevant. I can't think of any differentiating issues if they go with National. NZ First will get 6 per cent on a bad day and 10 per cent on a good one.

GREENS: The Greens are the first natural MMP party. Unfortunately the Labour caucus loathes the Greens. There will be no Cabinet red carpet for them. Now that the Alliance is out, the Greens are the only left-wing voice. If liberal voters feel that Labour is safe they will throw their vote to the Greens to prevent a NZ First coalition. But if the gap between National and Labour narrows, the Greens will be sidelined. They should get 8-9 per cent.

UNITED FUTURE: Given Graeme Capill's downfall I'd imagine United Future will be careful in how stridently it promotes its moral agenda. But its strength is its Christian fundamentalist base. There will be some panic due to their low polling but with Peter Dunne's seat they will hope for a lift like last election to take them through. Their natural home is with National. They'll be lucky to get over 3 per cent this time.

ACT: Rodney Hide has had to go for scandals since Brash grabbed Act's policies. The party's infighting has crippled it however. The palpable dislike most of the caucus have for each other is obvious. John Banks may have been able to win a seat, but his price was the party leadership and a socially conservative agenda. Act has no a hope of winning a seat. Nor will it make the 5 per cent threshold given National's rehabilitation. Deborah Coddington has jumped overboard, but the rest will go down with the SS Rogernomics. As National won't throw them a seat they will struggle to get 2 per cent.

MAORI PARTY: Tariana Turia is in a unique position as the Maori Party doesn't have to pass 5 per cent to win seats. The party is in a two-horse race with Labour in the Maori constituency seats. John Tamihere's self-inflicted injuries means Pita Sharples will win his seat. The remaining Labour Maori MPs know they are gone and have secured safe passage on the Party List. An independent Maori voice in parliament will be a reality after the election. At a minimum they'll take four seats but should take all seven Maori seats.

So what does this all mean after Election Day? Labour will get back in, in coalition with NZ First if it can and the Greens if it has to.

The Maori Party will be on the cross benches. Act will disappear. National will double its MPs on the Opposition benches with United Future becoming its 2008 election running mate. 

- HERALD ON SUNDAY