Labour: Win or lose

Helen Clark

IF IT WINS

The Cabinet is likely to see a major reshuffle of portfolios but not a rush of new Labour members if Labour leads the next Government.

The new faces would come from coalition partners the Greens or United Future, though not both - United Future has said it would not be in a coalition with the Greens but has not ruled out supporting a Labour-Greens coalition.

If United Future's support is required for Labour to govern, leader Peter Dunne will be given the foreign affairs portfolio. He has chaired the foreign affairs and defence committee for three years.

Foreign Minister Phil Goff has lived out of a suitcase for six years and with the Labour leadership, for which he is a contender, likely to be an issue within the next three years, he will find some advantages to being more domestically based.

If Labour does not need United Future in coalition, the foreign role is likely to go to Annette King, who has kept health horror stories, if not spending, under control.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has foreshadowed that health will go to Pete Hodgson.

Mr Goff could gain defence and possibly the role of Attorney-General.

If Labour needs a Green coalition, then the Greens could expect associate roles in transport and energy. They could also expect a full but not substantial portfolio, such as youth affairs.

Trevor Mallard will lose education to Progressives leader Jim Anderton, whose public plea for the post would not have been made without some nod and wink approval from Helen Clark.

Mr Anderton's interest is in the tertiary sector and the compulsory sector could go to a new associate minister, like David Parker, who is expected to get in from the list even if he loses his Otago seat.

Steve Maharey could inherit Mr Anderton's Ministry of Economic Development.

George Hawkins is already under notice to relinquish his police portfolio and Customs Minister Rick Barker is a contender.

Lianne Dalziel could also be re-elected to cabinet after being sacked from immigration last year.

High-flyer Shane Jones would not be elevated until later in the term, when the likes of Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton would be expected to stand down.

Helen Clark would be given the opportunity to try for an historic fourth term but chances are she would step down in the final year to rejuvenate the party.

Mr Goff and Mr Maharey would be contenders, with Mr Mallard a likely one.

IF IT LOSES

The blame

If Labour loses, Prime Minister Helen Clark will be held responsible but not to blame.

The most obvious blame magnets will be Finance Minister Michael Cullen and Labour's campaign marketing man, Social Development Minister Steve Maharey.

Before the Budget, Helen Clark was privately adamant there needed to be personal tax relief, following last year's generous Working for Families package. Dr Cullen was not persuaded. After intense debate, Dr Cullen finally agreed but only to indexing the tax-rate thresholds in three years, which met instant public derision.

He was given a second chance after revised Treasury forecasts handed him an additional $1.6 billion over four years, but stuck with the families-only approach.

Although the extra spending was Treasury's find, not his, his credibility has been damaged by the perception that he found money when the polls showed he needed it.

The strategists who argued that a long campaign was the way to beat Don Brash should expect flak after he gained in popularity the longer it went on.

And someone, most likely Mr Maharey, is likely to be shot for Labour's unimaginative, low-impact advertising campaign.

Leadership

Leader Helen Clark could remain in her post for at least a year, but history suggests defeated Prime Ministers do not hang around to fight another election.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen could once have had the job on a platter, but the tax-cuts fiasco has taken him from hero to zero in six months. Justice Minister Phil Goff would be the front-runner, but a few leftists might promote Steve Maharey. Trevor Mallard could be a contender.