Jonathan Milne: Nervous Labour faces tough battle to return to power

There's a romance about Parliament when it's lit up by the floodlights on a misty Wellington evening.

Hitch-hiking into town on Thursday night, Wanganui 17-year-olds Eric Wallace, Greg Hina and James Nelson couldn't resist paying a visit, "to see where the Prime Minister works". At Parliament, they climbed on the balustrades and asked passers-by if they were ministers, until the security guards moved them on.

But when delegates to Labour's election-year congress converge on Wellington and Parliament from Friday this week, their choice of venue will not be motivated by any misty-eyed affection for the seat of democracy.

While the main meetings will be held in the old town hall, sector workshops will be hosted around Parliament and at Education House, as the party tries to scrimp and save in election year.

The timing of the congress - less than six months since last year's annual conference - has raised questions about whether Labour is preparing for an early election. This congress is being held even earlier than in 2002, when a May congress set the stage for a July election.

But all the talk from the Beehive remains of a September visit to the polls: Saturday 10 or 17, or perhaps the 24th at the very latest. There are few other options in the preceding two months: most Saturdays are ruled out by the distraction of rugby internationals.

Labour dropped the ball in its submissions to the Electoral Commission on Tuesday about the divvy-up of $3.2 million in campaign advertising funding and air-time.

Party officials had planned to undermine National's status as one of the "big two" parties by arguing that it should get a smaller share of the funding than Labour. But in their enthusiasm to boast of Labour's strength by disclosing their party numbers for the first time, it quickly became clear that their claimed membership figure of 48,609 was shonky at best. It appears that once union affiliate members and double-counting are taken out, Labour's real individual membership is little over 10,000 - only one third of National's membership and smaller even than the new Maori Party's membership.

With active membership critical for on-the-ground campaigning, the talk at the coming weekend's congress will be of the different strategies for this year as the party prepares to battle on two fronts.

Usually, there is one fundamental and oft-repeated maxim in campaigning for an MMP Parliament: it is party vote, party vote, party vote. Winning individual electorates doesn't matter, because the number of seats in Parliament is entirely determined by winning party votes.

But this year, Labour is also holding a behind-closed-doors workshop on winning the Maori seats - recognition the Maori Party poses a new clear and present danger that cannot be met by traditional strategies.

The fact that young Maori like Greg Hina - who will be old enough to vote by the time the election is held - are becoming excited about politics and Parliament is a tribute to the work of the Maori Party.

But it is nervous news for Labour.