Jonathan Milne: Brash's divisive leadership splitting National Party

Let me state this outright: National Party leader Don Brash's politics are divisive.

Sure, some have accused his Orewa I speech of being racially divisive; yes, some have alleged his Orewa II speech last month marginalised beneficiaries - but his speeches have also divided his own caucus.

Arriving for the set-piece and set-to of Waitangi this weekend, promising to go on to the trouble-plagued Te Tii Marae unless elders maintained preferential treatment for Maori media, he could not afford another mistake.

The Herald on Sunday's report last week of MPs' discontent at feeling left out of his policy-making loop was confirmed dramatically with his demotion of welfare spokeswoman Katherine Rich.

If one dismisses the conspiracy theories about Rich falling on her sword to graphically display the strength of Brash's leadership, then only two explanations remain: he was out-played or out-of-touch. His media staff were left floundering when Rich disregarded the carefully-drafted statement that ended with her promising to make no further comment.

Even as Brash's chief of staff handed out the statement, journalists were following her to her office where she invited them in and told them of her unhappiness. She politely told the party media staff to remain outside.

There has been much comment about the relegation of National's women MPs: of the six, only first-termer Judith Collins has anything remotely resembling a real portfolio now. Georgina te Heuheu was sacked as Maori issues spokes-woman last year, and Lynda Scott has announced her retirement and appears to now be an angry MP with nothing to lose.

Moreover, Auckland-based Brash has upset five of his seven South Island MPs since taking the leadership. He ousted Bill English as leader, took the deputy leadership off Nick Smith, angered Scott and Brian Connell, and demoted Rich. Only deputy Gerry Brownlee and supporter David Carter remain.

Announcing a hardline new welfare policy without the support of his welfare spokeswoman was a risk, and risks have to be managed.

After months of strategy talks about how Brash could make a big impact at the start of the election year, the outcome was a debacle.

Waitangi should have been an opportunity to make up some lost ground, a win-win scenario. If Te Tii Marae continued to favour Maori media outlets over mainstream media organisations, he could again staunchly refuse to go on to the marae. If it lifted the ban, then he could march on victorious, upstaging the Prime Minister, who was staying away.

Instead, he obtained advice from relegated marae elder Bruce Gregory, who has no speaking authority, that the media ban would remain in place - despite the marae's insistence that Gregory was wrong. It appeared as if Brash was trying to find an excuse to avoid going on the marae. It looked like the marae had called his bluff and he was running scared.

Helen Clark avoided potential for trouble by bypassing the marae and going straight to the Governor-General's reception at Waitangi's Copthorne Resort.

But Brash nearly pushed it too far, just as he had in the Orewa speech when he alienated Katherine Rich, and it came back in his face like a big old clod of mud.

Brash finally went on, was greeted graciously and responded in kind - if only he had never tried to wriggle out in the first place.

Brash is trailing in the polls: he has to take risks to make up ground. But he needs to manage those risks better.