John Armstrong: Welfare reform to get the old Brash magic

No one should be expecting Don Brash to conjure up another piece of political magic anywhere near as stunning as last year's sorcery when he returns to the Orewa Rotary Club on Tuesday night.

That would be well nigh impossible.

It is both unfair and unrealistic to expect Tuesday's speech to spontaneously provoke the same wand-waving transformation of the political landscape as last year's Orewa address did.

Discretion being the better part of valour, National has engaged in timely manoeuvre by letting the core topic of this year's epic leak out in advance, thereby dampening down the thirst of expectation surrounding its contents, which was beginning to grow out of control and which Brash had no chance of quenching.

The word now is that Brash will concentrate on welfare reform and detail stiff measures to get people off benefits and into work.

It is a safe choice - perhaps the only choice in the absence of any glaring issue capable of resonating with the same force as Brash's onslaught last year against special treatment for Maori.

He still has room to be contentious - and will be. But there was a distinct danger that the over-billing of Orewa was setting up Brash for failure, particularly as the pressure was only likely to build as Tuesday approaches.

There is intense pressure on him from within his party, desperate to see a rejuvenated Brash get off to a flying start in election year by once more setting the agenda and forcing Labour on to the back foot.

There is the pressure from the media engaging in speculation about the speech's contents - and ratcheting up public anticipation in the process.

And there is implicit pressure from political opponents eager to see Brash set himself up for an almighty fall.

That left National in something of a quandary.

Not since Sir Robert Muldoon trod a path to Orewa in the mid-1970s has an Opposition leader enjoyed a platform which affords such undivided attention.

It is a complement to Brash that Labour, wary of the Orewa effect, has brought forward the resumption of Parliament by two weeks in order to make that attention as shortlived as possible.

Orewa is a unique opportunity to set the agenda - and one National Party strategists did not want to waste by giving away too much in advance.

Now, the elements of surprise and suspense have been lost. Labour is forewarned, although the Beehive may view the leak as bluff.

However, Labour can only guess what Brash might advocate on Tuesday - time limits for staying on a benefit, for example? Like everyone else, it will have to wait.

The alternative topics for the speech mulled over by Brash's advisers were National's plans for education and Brash's prime ministerial "vision" for New Zealand.

Both subjects will get a run soon enough as National endeavours to capitalise on the momentum it hopes to generate out of Orewa. But neither was sexy enough for the big night itself.

The huge plus of last year's trenchant attack on perceived special Maori rights was its crossover potential as something that struck deep into Labour's Pakeha heartland.

It is arguable whether welfare reform is in the same league, although National's private polling has previously picked up simmering resentment among wage and salary earners at the kind of cash some people get while on a benefit.

Getting tough with beneficiaries has certainly done nothing for Act's poll rating. However, as Brash showed at Orewa last year, once he starts talking about something in his highly measured tones, people start listening.

His speech will note that, at a time when the economy is relatively buoyant and employers are screaming out for staff, tens of thousands of people remain on welfare. He will argue this shows "systemic" problems in a welfare system that has gone well beyond meeting its original objectives and which must be overhauled if New Zealand is to lift its slipping income levels relative to Australia.

One advantage of selecting welfare reform for such a crucial speech is that Brash cannot be accused of pushing populist buttons, as his desire for reform goes back to his time as Reserve Bank governor. And he is offering voters real choices. However, the big tactical plus for National is that Labour cannot pick off its welfare policies with the ease it has done elsewhere.

With the exception of National's promise to abolish the Maori seats, that was the fate of the other elements in last year's Orewa speech, as Helen Clark moved to either match or neutralise them.

In the case of welfare policies, the ideological battle lines between National and Labour are far more tightly drawn.

Labour, hamstrung by its left faction and ties to the trade unions, has to take a far more softly-softly approach to getting beneficiaries back into the workforce.

Look no further than this week's $27 million package, which includes enhanced wage subsidies, home visits to the long-term unemployed and help for sickness beneficiaries to deal with work-inhibiting medical needs.

It also goes without saying that the package was unveiled to head Brash off at the pass.

However, Labour cannot outflank National on welfare reform, given that Brash will be outlining controversial policy proposals in his Orewa address.

They will need to be. Brash cannot disappoint.

Having dulled expectations, Brash is not exempt from pulling some kind of rabbit out of the hat. For rabbit there must be.

If the speech is a fizzer, his opponents will be lightning quick in making sure it is rated as a flop.

Those close to National's leader and who have seen the drafts are quietly confident it will have a marked impact, however.

Whatever, the stakes could hardly be higher.

The speech will be deemed either success or failure. There is no halfway house here.

And the difference between success and failure is the difference between Brash confidently walking into Parliament when it resumes the week after next having set the early election-year agenda, versus Brash returning to the chamber for the new session looking just as bruised as he was at the end of last year.

Quite simply, Orewa has to make that difference and begin turning National from also-ran back into front-runner.