John Armstrong: Two's company - three's a crowd

Is Rodney Hide that desperate?

National and United Future clearly think so. Yesterday's campaign trail rendezvous between Don Brash and Peter Dunne was kept hush-hush for fear that Act would gatecrash their public display of coalition compatibility.

The cloak-and-dagger may have seemed slightly farcical, but given Act's constant begging for National's affections it was probably warranted. The orchestrated "meet-and-greet" was a simple case of two's company and three's a crowd.

Dr Brash and Mr Dunne did not want Act around to confuse the signals being sent to voters - one of which is that United Future is preferred by National ahead of Act.

The more basic message National wanted to get across was that it has coalition options despite what the Prime Minister might say. Moreover, it has one amenable to implementing the thrust of National's tax package.

It was Helen Clark's taunts which last week prompted Murray McCully, one of Dr Brash's close advisers, to contact Rob Eaddy, Mr Dunne's chief of staff.

A source of friction between the two parties was removed by National undertaking not to axe the Families Commission, whose preservation is a bottom-line for United Future.

For Mr Dunne and his party's low poll rating, yesterday's meeting was the right move at the right time.

United Future could still end up propping up Labour. A similarly symbolic date with the Prime Minister is pending.

But yesterday's signals seemed to hint that National is now more in favour - and for one reason. Mr Dunne refuses to be party to a Labour-Greens coalition. His chances of a seat at the Cabinet table are better with National.

With National in the ascendancy, he is zeroing in on voters who want a National government but who are perturbed by Labour's warnings that a Brash-led one will be extremist.

Just as he has sold himself as moderating the Greens' influence on Labour, he is marketing himself as a restraining factor on Dr Brash.

Mr Dunne will presumably stress this role in tomorrow night's televised leaders' debate.

His cuddling up to National is also designed to woo back United Future's Christian supporters angered by the party's propping up of "politically correct" Labour.

After the election, United Future will talk first to the party which wins the most seats - a stance likely to be adopted by Winston Peters today.

Coalition-wise, things are clicking into place for National. But the approach being taken by the two centre parties has underlined the need to win the two-horse race against Labour.

To get the winner they want, voters may polarise even more around National and Labour, backing one to shut out the other.

For Winston Peters, there is an awful irony. He is finally and reluctantly going to offer a few clues on how he will handle post-election negotiations in order to lift NZ First's sagging support.

He may end up depressing it even more.