John Armstrong: Troops ready to march

The Labour Party is not only ready for an election. It is positively itching for one.

While much of the party's election-planning congress took place behind closed doors over the weekend, Labour has clearly revved itself up into such an advanced state of anticipation for the coming campaign that the logic for going early is even more compelling.

Like a general inspecting her battle-hungry troops, the Prime Minister confidently declared "everything is going to plan" as she fired up Congress delegates in Wellington's old Town Hall on Friday evening.

However, Labour's bullish confidence is tinged with a shade of nervousness. The political indicators are certainly all pointing in the right direction. But that means any change would only see them starting to point in the wrong direction.

Senior party officials are still publicly discounting the possibility of an early poll, but the Prime Minister has now deliberately stopped short of quashing speculation. While she is clearly hedging her bets on a suitable date, she is also trying to keep Labour's rivals guessing.

By holding out on the election date, she is also trying to spook National into revealing policies that might have an "Orewa effect" which it may be keeping up its sleeve for the campaign proper.

While the congress did not necessarily signify the start of Labour's unofficial campaign, it was certainly a dress rehearsal for how it will pitch its message. It will sell itself as a predictable, proven package, stable enough to last the distance and characterised by strong leadership.

Wishing to avoid any impression of arrogance, Helen Clark declared no party had the right to call itself "the natural party of government". But in stressing how Labour has reached across the political divide to work successfully with other parties - and thus implying National cannot - she was doing just that.

While the congress witnessed the inevitable ridiculing of Don Brash - by highlighting embarrassing material in the National leader's recently published biography - Labour's more serious intent is to undermine his credibility by persuading voters that his adoption of more centrist policies is a case of a market ideologue pretending to be someone he isn't. In other words, he cannot be trusted.

Behind the mocking, however, Labour is clearly worried by National's pending promise of tax cuts.

It was notable that Dr Cullen hosted two congress workshops advising Labour candidates and party workers on how best to counter this threat.

Labour will argue across-the-board tax cuts are no longer affordable; that they would over-stimulate the economy, forcing the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates; that it is more effective to target income top-ups to those who actually need them; and that, contrary to conventional wisdom, New Zealanders are not overtaxed.

Dr Cullen's problem is that a simple tax cut is easy to understand, whereas much of his rebuttal is quite technical. He is still searching for the right soundbite.

However, Labour's biggest fear is voter volatility. It saw its lead in the polls in the 2002 campaign shrink dramatically following the "Corngate" row over genetic modification.

The party is nervous about something similarly coming out of left field and whacking it in this year's campaign.

That worry is exacerbated by the possibility of Dr Brash somehow managing a repeat of the "Orewa effect".

It may not happen over race next time. But just to make sure, the Prime Minister repeated her promise that Labour will set a final date for the lodging of historical Treaty of Waitangi claims. She did not specify a date. She is saving that announcement for the election campaign.

That is an example of Labour trying to anticipate what might go wrong by making itself as bullet-proof as possible. But it cannot insure itself against the unknown. And the longer it delays an election, the more time for the unknown to strike.