John Armstrong: Tamihere out in the cold for a few months more

John Tamihere won't like it, but the Prime Minister has no option but to postpone his return to the Cabinet until after September's election despite two inquiries clearing him of wrongdoing.

Helen Clark effectively ruled out a pre-election reinstatement back in December when she pointedly closed the door to him by reshuffling her Cabinet the day before he was cleared by Douglas White, QC.

And while she was not definitive following yesterday's green light from the Serious Fraud Office, she gave a pretty firm hint she has not changed her mind.

If anything, she now has more reason not to revise her thinking given that the SFO is laying charges against others following its Waipareira Trust investigation.

It may be rough justice for Mr Tamihere, but in the immediate run-up to the election, the Labour Party will not wear the risk of a Cabinet minister being drawn into court cases either as a witness or by being named in proceedings.

There is also the not small matter of whether the Prime Minister thinks Mr Tamihere has "served his time" on the backbenches for his serious lapse in judgment in accepting a golden handshake from the trust.

It is little more than four months since he resigned his portfolios. Lianne Dalziel had to spend a full year out in the cold before Helen Clark considered she had done sufficient penance.

Even then, Ms Dalziel was only appointed a parliamentary private secretary - a post well removed from the Cabinet and one which carries no extra pay.

No surprises then that Opposition parties are already denouncing any fast-tracking of Mr Tamihere's resurrection as a double standard.

While such a move would be well received by Maori voters, Dover Samuels, dumped from the Cabinet some five years ago, is the MP really in need of promotion to help him head off a strong Maori Party challenge in his Te Tai Tokerau seat.

Ms Dalziel's appointment last month to such a low-level post was further notice of the PM's unwillingness to contemplate another shake-up of Cabinet responsibilities before polling day.

The one positive that Mr Tamihere should take from Helen Clark's remarks yesterday is that she has essentially told his caucus colleagues that she wants him returned to the "highest levels" in the party after the election.

That is an important signal. While Labour MPs technically choose who among them will become Cabinet ministers, the result is determined by negotiation between factions in advance of the ballot.

The Prime Minister is saying Mr Tamihere will be on the Cabinet ticket even though there will be fierce competition between backbenchers for potentially fewer posts should Labour have to forgo slots to a coalition partner.

This may help appease Mr Tamihere's friends in the caucus who are demanding his immediate reinstatement.

The Prime Minister can gamble on that clamour on Mr Tamihere's behalf being short-lived, however.

Individuals are very secondary to a party's wider interests in election year. The weight of argument thus favours Helen Clark considerably - and those loyal to Mr Tamihere know it.