John Armstrong: Tails line up to wag biggest dog

Not only is the new Parliament something of a dog's breakfast, a lot more tails are now lining up to wag the dog.

It was bound to happen sooner or later that voters would produce all the ingredients for a bout of old-fashioned Italian-style political instability.

In doing so, they have handed Helen Clark a double-edged sword. By virtue of Labour's one-seat lead over National and tallies for other parties falling her way, she gets first go at forming the new Government.

That could yet turn out to be a six-party arrangement which will have all the acceleration and verve of a traction engine in reverse.

But she must make it work.

If she cannot, there is the remote possibility that Don Brash can - if he can somehow manage to get the Maori Party on side.

Otherwise, another election beckons. And Labour would be punished for the paralysis.

The odds favour Helen Clark cobbling something workable together, however.

Labour has six years' experience of minority Government under its belt. It is adept at consulting other parties, keeping them quarantined from one another so it calls the shots.

Even so, this is a quantum leap on its previous four-party arrangement, not least because Winston Peters will almost inevitably be part of the mix.

It is likely the Prime Minister's preferred choice will be Labour governing in a minority coalition with Jim Anderton, with support on confidence motions from the Greens, United Future and even the Maori Party, and NZ First abstaining.

Hovering in the background, however, is the possibility that special votes will give the centre-left an extra seat at National's expense.

That would allow Labour, Jim Anderton and the Greens to form a centre-left coalition with the backing of the Maori Party.

But Helen Clark will not wish to be beholden to Tariana Turia - or even to be seen to be. Labour is also nervous that the Maori Party will not hold together.

The Prime Minister is putting a premium on stability. Though unwieldy, the more parties on board, the more durable the Government.

There are other reasons she wants the two centre parties, United Future and NZ First, under some umbrella governing arrangement.

First, a broader arrangement will have more legitimacy and give her a stronger mandate. It will also isolate National and Act - the two parties which, not surprisingly, did not receive post-election phone calls from Helen Clark or her chief of staff, Heather Simpson.

Second, when it comes to getting legislation through Parliament, Helen Clark needs to have as many options as possible in order to secure a majority.

That will require concessions.

The Greens look to be the losers. The Prime Minister is now saying there is "too much focus" on coalitions - an indication she will bow to the joint refusal of Peter Dunne and Winston Peters to prop up a Labour-led Government which is in coalition with the Greens.

It is tough on the Greens, especially after they backed Labour to the hilt through the election campaign.

But they did not win enough seats. And Helen Clark knows they have no choice but to back a Labour-led Government.

They will likely be rewarded by some of their policies being implemented through inclusion in a confidence-and-supply agreement.

The tail-wagging has also seen Mr Dunne seemingly sending a signal to Helen Clark that unless United Future gets a seat around the Cabinet table then he is not interested in a deal.

The Prime Minister, however, will see this merely as a bargaining ploy.

The next two weeks or so are the one opportunity in the three-year electoral cycle for minor parties to use what little leverage they have to strike the best deal they can.

However, United Future's bargaining power is reduced by virtue of its representation being cut from eight MPs to three.

NZ First's is similarly lessened by its offer to abstain on confidence motions being worth less to Labour than a vote in favour of the Government.

There may be more tails to wag the dog - but the election's brutal slicing of minor party votes means the dog is bigger and the tails that much smaller.