John Armstrong: Speech can set the early election agenda

Despite the secrecy, we know one thing. National leader Don Brash's eagerly anticipated speech to the Orewa Rotary Club will not rehash last year's stunner on race and the status of the Treaty of Waitangi.

This year's topic is a closely guarded secret - yet it may be revealed in advance in order to dampen the impossibly high expectations raised by last year's speech.

However, Orewa now offers the Opposition leader a unique opportunity to set the early general election-year agenda.

What can Dr Brash talk about instead of race in the hope of getting a similar "big bang" reaction and earning National a vital lift in the polls? Here are some possibilities:

New Zealand in decline: In true "state of the nation" mode, Dr Brash will almost certainly lament falling household incomes relative to Australia; bemoan slipping standards, educational and otherwise; and complain about decaying moral values exacerbated by Labour's so-called "social engineering" agenda, as evidenced by the introduction of civil unions. Dr Brash could make some kind of appeal to latent nationalism by claiming traditional core Kiwi values are fast disappearing and long-established freedoms being dangerously eroded. This could be a potent theme - and enough for a whole speech. But such a broad speech may need a few fresh hooks, quotable one-liners and pithy slogans to keep the punters interested beyond the night.

A leader's vision: The safe option. Orewa provides the ideal platform for a taster of National's election policies yet to come. Dr Brash could downplay the speech in advance, puncturing hyped-up expectations of its impact and instead answer his critics by concentrating on painting positive, big-picture stuff which reveals his vision for New Zealand. However, his advisers may be reluctant to waste the incredible attention-grabbing opportunity offered by Orewa on a nebulous "vision" statement - something he can make any time.

Welfare reform: This is one of the front-runners. It has long shown up as a major "sleeper" issue in National's private opinion polling. At a time when there are jobs aplenty, it is much easier to promote firm policies to force people off the dole. However, National has been promising welfare reform for so long that Dr Brash would have to announce some particularly tough measures to make people take notice.

Education:Another front-runner. Worthy, but dull. Education was singled out by Dr Brash last year as one of five key areas where he would lay out National's plans. It remains one of National's major points of difference with Labour. But it may not be enough of a headline-grabber to form the foundation of such a crucial speech.

The economy: Dr Brash is no doubt tempted (once again) to accuse Labour of failing to take advantage of benign economic conditions to further restructure the economy and make it even stronger and less vulnerable when the inevitable slowdown occurs. His difficulty lies in convincing people that things could be even better than the relentlessly upbeat economic indicators already show. Brash will not wish to turn his annual pilgrimage to Orewa into a kamikaze mission.

Tax cuts: Been there and done that in a speech last month. Dr Brash would need to come up with some cash-in-the-pocket detail. But National is still mulling over the figures and holding off announcements until the next Budget.

Immigration: There was a hint from Dr Brash in 2004 that he might start questioning the size of the annual immigrant intake. Following his emphasis last year on the treaty and law and order, that would see him picking up the last of the big three populist issues hammered by Winston Peters. National, however, has long accepted reasonably substantial immigration. A u-turn could lead to charges of desperation. And - as everyone knows - Dr Brash's wife is from Singapore.

A stronger democracy: An outside possibility. Dr Brash last week urged greater use of referendums regarding controversial social and constitutional issues, rather than Parliament passing such legislation without a specific mandate to do so. This could twin with a favourite theme of "getting government out of people's lives".