John Armstrong: Rich's sacking fuels rumbles of dissent

Despite National once again indulging its standard preference for target practice - shooting itself in the foot - the party's election prospects should not suffer lasting damage from Don Brash sacking his welfare spokeswoman, Katherine Rich, and dumping her from his front bench.

There is no question the momentum National had generated from Dr Brash's Orewa speech has been stalled for now, replaced by memories of the leader's stumbles last year and reviving doubts about his political judgment.

That will pass. The real damage has been wreaked internally within National's caucus. That will linger.

Dr Brash is lucky Mrs Rich's loyalty to National has her forgoing the option of becoming a backbench rebel destabilising the leader in the way Maurice Williamson undermined Bill English.

That is not her style.

Her restraint following her demotion yesterday enabled Dr Brash to erect a facade of unity - only to see it demolished by colleagues openly questioning his handling of someone who did not share his enthusiasm for more stringent means of weaning women off the domestic purposes benefit.

National's welfare policy is now in the firm hands of the no-nonsense Judith Collins.

She will have no qualms promoting Dr Brash's suggestions that women who become pregnant while on the DPB should not automatically qualify for additional state assistance, and that teenage girls should adopt out their babies rather than going on a benefit - two ideas which went way too far for the more moderate Mrs Rich.

However, the shunting-aside of such a highly respected member of National's front bench has exposed deep-seated dissatisfaction with the way policy is being written and the licence being taken by the leader.

Mrs Rich's sacking is further ammunition for those excluded from Dr Brash's cabal and who have his chief adviser, Murray McCully, in their sights.

As the Prime Minister was quick to note, every National MP will be thinking that if it can happen to a high-flyer and party favourite like Mrs Rich, it can happen to anyone.

Last year's Orewa sacrifice was Georgina te Heuheu, National's Maori Affairs spokeswoman. She was cast overboard with barely a backwards glance as her colleagues basked in the post-Orewa euphoria.

Mrs Rich's demise will give more pause for reflection. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one spokeswoman may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.

It was certainly poor management that the welfare policy had not been finalised before Dr Brash decided on it as the topic for this year's Orewa agenda-setter. Suspicious colleagues will surmise that was deliberate and Dr Brash took advantage of the policy not being complete to put forward a harsher prescription than some of his MPs could live with.

Last-minute attempts were made to soften the speech's wording to make it acceptable to Mrs Rich. But there could be no disguising the intent of what Dr Brash was saying however he chose to word it.

In the end, though, he had no choice. Dr Brash's speech would have been seriously lacking in punch had its more contentious elements been deleted.

Dr Brash has to go for broke - and he and his advisers know it.

If the formula is shown to have worked come election day, there will be few complaints from those currently grumbling. If it doesn't, then neither Dr Brash nor Mr McCully will be hanging around awaiting retribution to be exacted.