John Armstrong: Reaching hearts via the pocket

The Labour Party threw everything bar the kitchen sink at Don Brash yesterday after he promised to lop 5c off the price of petrol by slashing excise tax. But to what avail?

Michael Cullen was not wanting for arguments to pan the announcement.

He slammed the promise as a cynical, last-minute bid to buy votes. It was a flip-flop. National had ruled out such a reduction just days ago. Diesel users would miss out. The loss of revenue would not necessarily be compensated by the supposed GST windfall from higher petrol prices. And so on.

He may have been making valid points. But here was a shining example of why National is at least level-pegging with Labour, and probably ahead as the campaign enters its final stage.

It is a hearts-and-minds battle. While Labour uses logic to get into voters' minds, National has got straight to voters' hearts through their pockets. National's messages are simple; Labour's rebuttal is often complicated.

That was best illustrated when the roles were reversed and Labour made its promise to abolish interest on student loans. Labour's policy cut right to the chase. It was National which was left floundering in its wake, making futile arguments about affordability.

This election has short-term gain in ascendancy over long-term pain. It is no contest - much to Dr Cullen's chagrin. In that respect, National's cut in petrol tax is a last-week reminder of the party's opposition to over-taxation, while displaying its willingness to respond pragmatically when the big bite is going on household budgets.

It also gets National firmly back on tax policy after the Exclusive Brethren-generated distractions.

The tax cut is carefully pitched. It could not be so large as to look profligate. It could not be too small as to look token.

It is designed to be seen as fiscally responsible by being temporary. The reduction would last six months from October to next April, at which point the first stage of National's tax cuts are scheduled to kick in.

There are two potential political downsides. The first is inconsistency. National had said the money was needed for its roading programme. Now it says the reduction will not affect that programme.

The second risk is that the announcement is one promise too many which tips the scales for some undecided voters worried how National is going to find the money for everything it is promising without cutting social services.

With a "don't put it all at risk" message now dominating its advertising, Labour is zeroing-in on that worry, punting that enough undecided voters will opt safety-first for the devil they know to keep it in Government. The frighteners will be applied in ever heavier doses as Saturday nears.

And for another reason. Unlike 1999 and 2002, the centre-right vote will be out in force on Saturday. Labour must get its harder-to-motivate support out as never before.

To that end, Labour is making little secret that its private polling has the party trailing National - if only narrowly. Whether that is spin or not, there is no better frightener to jolt complacent and apathetic supporters to make that trip to the polling booths.