John Armstrong: Pressures mount for an early election

Whether the Prime Minister likes it or not, the case for an early election has just got even stronger.

Somehow, Labour must make a clean break from the escalating series of ministerial and bureaucratic embarrassments now plaguing the Government, day after day, the latest of which last night saw David Benson-Pope forced to stand down as a Cabinet minister.

His temporary suspension after allegations that he bullied and assaulted students when he was a Dunedin high school teacher was necessary to quarantine the Government from collateral damage.

But even if investigations show Mr Benson-Pope is guiltless regarding the claims made by former students, his personal misfortune has not occurred in isolation.

The allegations follow the damning report on 111 call centres, the Opposition's claims that Helen Clark manipulated the media to get Peter Doone sacked, the fiasco over would-be Iraqi immigrants, the NCEA scholarship melee, Dover Samuels urinating in a hotel corridor and, the daddy of them all, John Tamihere's scorching critique of his colleagues.

On the face of it, this litany of woes might suggest it would be better to wait for a decent interval to elapse before going to the country. Logic would suggest their combined impact must be seriously corrosive of Labour's poll rating because they must be undermining voter confidence in the Government's great strength - its competence.

But the polls suggest such an erosion has yet to happen in any serious way.

Helen Clark, Michael Cullen and other senior Government MPs must ask themselves whether things will really improve in the months ahead ... whether they would be making a bigger mistake continuing in what is becoming a purposeless limbo until a late September election while Opposition parties merrily chip away at them in meantime.

The reality is that the election campaign is already under way - as Mr Benson-Pope has discovered. The phoney war that normally precedes the formal election campaign is not so phoney this time.

Thursday's Budget provides the stage for the Government to lift the public's sights back to the fundamentals of Government upon which Labour is rated so highly.

But Budgets have only temporary impact as propaganda tools.

The Prime Minister might be well-advised not to allow the dust to settle too much after Thursday, instead using the document as a springboard for the announcement within a week or two of an election in late July or early August.

Sure, she will be accused of panicking, but that fuss will die within 24 hours. By then her rivals may well be the ones panicking.

Bring it on, Prime Minister.

The man

David Benson-Pope

Age: 55.

Married with two children.

Taught at Bayfield High School in Dunedin from 1975-1999.

Dunedin City councillor from October 1986 to March 2000.

Was nicknamed "brownshirt" by his Labour colleagues for the unpopular decisions he made as chief whip.

Shepherded the controversial Civil Union Bill through Parliament.