John Armstrong: PM in no rush to hit back

John Tamihere has inflicted severe embarrassment on Labour. But it is arguable whether he has seriously damaged his party.

His brutal critique of his colleagues says more about him and his current bruised state of mind than it does about the one thing which really matters in election year - the Government's overall competence.

Whether Labour does sustain any longer-term hit beyond him supplying copious tittle-tattle for the National Party's campaign advertising now hangs on the Labour leadership ensuring its handling of the trouble-prone MP does not become dangerously messy.

Mr Tamihere has poisoned relations with colleagues and they expect him to show real remorse. But he is in an ugly mood which does not see him inclined to do so.

The combination of his huge ego, his desire for revenge against those he sees as responsible for him being sacked from the Cabinet and his frustration at not being reinstated after being cleared of wrongdoing is driving his politically-erratic behaviour. There is no predicting what he might do.

Labour's worry is that pushing him too hard to accept he was way out of line could turn a somewhat maverick MP into something more akin to a backbench rebel.

He has yet to cross that divide. Just months from the election, Labour will not want to provoke him.

Complicating things is that his explosive interview in Investigate magazine has effectively burned his bridges to getting back into the Cabinet. But to keep him firmly in the Labour tent this side of the election, the Prime Minister must offer him the hope that restitution is more than a possibility afterwards.

The surprising leniency she is displaying reflects her self-interest as much as her expressed concern for his state of mind.

However, by suggesting his actions are the result of severe stress, she has been able to mute expectations that he is deserving of the full rasp of her tongue.

While his colleagues are hurt and infuriated by his disloyalty, crucially, there is also no public pressure on the Prime Minister to discipline him.

There is no immediate hurry to do anything, although the placatory stance which now has the Prime Minister in "dialogue" with Mr Tamihere might be perceived as weakness - particularly as he has yet to furnish an apology despite the heavy prompting of colleagues as senior as Dr Cullen and Phil Goff.

However, a slight loss of face is preferable to getting into an escalating public stoush with Mr Tamihere. The Prime Minister could not be seen to be backing off. The reality is that he is already a backbencher. The Prime Minister therefore has few sanctions with which to discipline him bar excluding him from the Labour caucus temporarily or permanently.

That might simply prompt him to quit Labour altogether. And the party's hold on its remaining Maori seats would probably go with him.