John Armstrong: Peters must get it right this time

Labour's post-election talks with other parties have had a slightly unreal feel. From the outside, things seemed to be going smoothly - perhaps a little too smoothly.

Sure enough - just as Labour was permitting itself to express some public optimism it will form the next Government - the one character who has been keeping a surprisingly low profile bounded onto centre stage with his now legendary timing.

Was Winston Peters' meeting with National's Don Brash and Gerry Brownlee yesterday nothing more than a negotiating gambit to lever more concessions out of Labour?

Was it the first sign that NZ First and National are serious about trying to form an alternative Administration?

Or was it much ado about nothing more than National seeking Mr Peters' backing for its candidate for the vote on Parliament's Speaker?

Neither leader would confirm or deny the meeting even took place - thus giving it an air of mystery and intrigue.

Mr Peters has to tread carefully, however.

During the election campaign, he stressed NZ First would give the party which won the most seats first go at forming a government.

He declared that was a "constitutional convention". It isn't. But his rhetoric means he cannot go behind Labour's back when he is presumably still negotiating in good faith with Labour.

Neither can he afford a rerun of the 1996 shambles. The public may be in a state of bliss for not having to listen to the country's politicians. But that mood could snap to NZ First's big cost if Mr Peters is seen to be dragging things out for effect.

However, Mr Peters may now believe going with Labour will see the demise of his party in 2008 as National, which is already making noises about moving more to the centre, scoops up the votes of those who backed NZ First.

That worry will be intensified by the other centre party, Peter Dunne's United Future, now clearly wavering in supporting Labour and preferring to align itself with National.

Whatever significance should be attached to yesterday's cloak and dagger behaviour, three things can be read as given.

First, there is still much debate within NZ First about what the party should do.

Second, whatever prompted Mr Peters to meet Dr Brash, it spells trouble for Labour - even if the reason is as mundane as the Speakership.

Third - and perhaps most important of all - thrusting himself back in the post-election limelight only intensifies the pressure on Mr Peters to be seen to be playing a constructive role in forming a stable government.

Following the collapse of the 1996 to 1998 coalition, this is NZ First's second chance to show it can get it right - and its last.