John Armstrong: Partners’ mating rituals

Those observing the celebratory clinking of teacups in the Prime Minister's office on Wednesday morning could have been excused thinking that while three's company, four is a crowd.

There was an inescapable feeling that someone was missing from the morning tea hosted by Helen Clark for Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne to highlight the longevity of the current Labour-Progressive-United Future governing axis.

The Greens did not get an invitation. But neither would they have been expecting one. They are not part of the tripartite governing arrangement and have persistently voted against the Labour-Progressive minority coalition on confidence motions.

Even so, there was a Cinderella-like tinge to the Greens' absence. That feeling was reinforced in Parliament that afternoon as the Prime Minister - prompted by a question from Rod Donald - belatedly acknowledged their support on critical pieces of legislation and help in maintaining "strong, stable Government".

With an election in the air, Helen Clark is now selling the "stability" message wherever and whenever she can - and having Dunne and Anderton for morning tea provided the necessary symbolism.

Castigated by opponents for being the Government's "doormat" over the previous 965 days, Dunne naturally lapped up the chance to stand in Clark's spotlight and get some kudos for United Future's part in setting a new record for the survival of an MMP Government.

But Dunne also exploited the photo-opportunity to suggest he has got an early foot in Labour's door when it comes to post-election negotiations on forming the next government.

For diplomacy's sake, he stressed United Future could work equally well with National. But with the polls pointing firmly Labour's way, there is a thinly disguised tug-of-war for Labour's affections, with Dunne keen to persuade voters he has a headstart compared to the Greens - and his party is therefore still highly relevant.

United Future has gambled big on its reliability as a governing partner paying a big dividend in votes. But it may not get that pay-off. It is thus important that voters see United Future as remaining a post-election option for Labour and that Clark will not necessarily favour the Greens.

As the Wellington-based political newsletter Molesworth & Featherston has noted, the likelihood of United Future being involved in the next government will see the party receiving considerable media attention during the election campaign - and that should translate into seats.

Maybe not enough, though, to hold the balance of power alone. If Labour wins the most seats, Clark will likely face three scenarios: first, the Greens may alone give her sufficient numbers for a majority; second, she may be able to choose between either United Future, the Greens or New Zealand First (which comes a long way behind the others); third, and worst, she may have to rely on two of those parties for a majority.

The latter possibility would most likely see Labour and Anderton trying to rule as a minority Government, rather than run an unwieldy four-way coalition.

Indeed, Labour would love to continue ruling in the minority. Unfortunately, the current cosy arrangement which has enabled it to turn first to United Future for support on legislation, and then to the Greens if that backing is not forthcoming, is about to end.

Instead of his current confidence-and-supply deal, Dunne will want a formal coalition with Labour next time which has his party sitting at the Cabinet table. That's a problem for Clark, who would be happier sticking with her party's current arm's length arrangement with United Future.

A Labour-United Future coalition may hold attraction for centrist voters - which is why Dunne is promoting it. But that prospect could push some Labour-leaning voters into the arms of the Greens to give that party more leverage in their coalition talks with Labour.

It is one thing for Labour to cross the centre-line by choice. It is another to be pulled by someone else in that direction.

Labour's membership must be uncomfortable with the thought of being tied to a centre-right party with a dominant streak of moral conservatism. It wasn't United Future which enabled Labour to deliver on promises like the new Supreme Court and the Maori Television Service, it was the Greens.

Dunne is well aware of this sensitivity. He is talking of a coalition agreement which will enhance brand differences, rather than smudging them. He will also likely make it as easy as he can for Labour to swallow its reservations by minimising obstacles to negotiating an agreement. He will not make his price too high.

Well aware Dunne struck a deal with Labour in 2002 within 10 days of starting talks, the Greens are looking at streamlining their cumbersome decision-making so that a coalition agreement negotiated by the party's caucus and executive will go before a delegates' conference for mandating within a maximum period of four weeks.

However, the really big leap that the Greens will have to make is the one from the relative ideological purity of Opposition to the compromise of coalition.

That gulf was highlighted by the Progressives' Matt Robson this week when he singled out the Greens' opposition to a free trade agreement with China as a potential coalition-blocker.

The official line within the Greens is that there are no insurmountable obstacles to an agreement. The party is promising that a vote for the Greens is a vote for a Labour-led Government and it will negotiate in good faith to produce one.

To show willing, the Greens will likely abstain on the coming Budget rather than moving an amendment of no confidence.

That is a big concession for them - but one Labour may see as coming rather late in the piece in helping to rebuild trust between the two parties shattered by the bitterness over genetic modification.

It is the trust deficit which partly explains why Dunne is confident his party is Labour's preferred option. The Greens believe views within Labour are very mixed on which partner would be best, however.

Do not expect any smoke-signals to emerge from this weekend's Labour Party Congress. Ruling nothing in and nothing out, the Prime Minister will be intent on keeping delegates focused on winning the election first. Away from the conference floor, however, the chatter will inevitably be turning to what happens afterwards.