John Armstrong: One-seat change a huge difference

That she should be so lucky - lucky, lucky, lucky.

Helen Clark could have been excused humming Kylie Minogue's old standard after the composition of the new Parliament was finalised yesterday following the counting of special votes.

The specials have been very kind to Labour. And not simply because Labour can now justifiably claim to have won as large a share of the vote as it did at the previous election - 41.1 per cent against 41.2 per cent in 2002.

That goes a long way in knocking National's argument Clark no longer has a mandate for a "winner-takes-all" approach to governing.

The specials have also made it slightly easier for Clark to build what will still be a hotch-potch minority Government.

But their major contribution is to reduce Parliament by one seat. And that should make it a lot easier for Labour to pass laws.

Election night results meant Clark needed backing both from minor parties to her left and on her right to get measures through the House - a recipe for paralysis - but the new 121-seat chamber means she now needs 61 votes for a majority, instead of the election night 62.

That one-seat change makes a world of difference. Suddenly the arithmetic all slots into place.

Add up the centre-left parties - Labour's 50 seats, Jim Anderton's one, the Greens' six and the Maori Party's four - and you get 61 votes, enough to pass a left-leaning bill.

Add together Labour's seats, Anderton's, NZ First's seven seats and United Future's three and you get the 61 required to pass more conservative measures.

That is a major fillip to Clark as she sits down with the Greens, NZ First, United Future and the Maori Party to get the numbers required for her new administration to gain the confidence of Parliament.

From election night, her Plan A has been to hammer out confidence agreements with as many of those parties as she can to give herself as big a parliamentary buffer as possible.

That strategy has not changed even though the numbers mean she can form a coalition comprising Labour, Anderton and the Greens, with Maori Party backing on confidence motions.

But Clark is not willing to rely on Tariana Turia, not least because she fears the Maori Party could implode.

So it's still Plan A. And now there is more incentive to stick with Plan A and include Winston Peters and Peter Dunne in the array of confidence agreements. That gives her more latitude on legislation. And there is more in it for them if Clark has more freedom to pass measures to their liking.

That is not to say it is all plain sailing. Far from it.

With Peters and possibly Turia in the mix, Clark will be walking on eggshells to keep her Government functioning with even a semblance of order and authority.

National is punting on Clark enjoying neither commodity.

So Labour's predicament would not have made yesterday's gracious concession of defeat any easier for Don Brash.

If things fall apart for Labour, Brash is unlikely to be around to pick up the pieces.

Yesterday's assurance he will stay on as leader and fight the next election in that capacity is - a statement dictated by the need to stop questions about his future dominating every press conference he holds, while giving a National caucus full of new MPs time to reflect on alternatives.

His declaration has the standard wet tissue paper robustness that should be accorded such assurances.