John Armstrong: John Banks can name his price with Act

With Act facing oblivion, the intriguing prospect of John Banks coming on board could see him supplying the parliamentary lifeline the party so desperately needs.

Despite the comforting spin that Act's support always recovers after starting election year on a low, the party realises that this time it is stuck in a vicious cycle.

The more prolonged its slump in the polls, the more the party is written off. And the more it is written off, the more prolonged the party's slump in the polls.

Act is scrambling for a circuit-breaker. Much hope is invested in the party's annual conference this weekend, which really has only one task: convincing doubters that Act will still matter come September's election.

Sending a message is one thing; getting voters to listen is another. To borrow an old Mike Moore line, the phone is off the hook.

No wonder Act's hierarchy - despite its reservations about Banks - is lured inexorably towards putting Auckland's former mayor on its candidate list to make the reconnection.

Banks would make people sit up and take notice of Act - especially if the party also allowed him to stand in National-held Tamaki and really take the fight to his old party.

He is pathologically outspoken. He is rarely a stranger to controversy. He polarises. His moral conservatism sits uncomfortably with Act's liberal values.

He speaks his mind. People like that. He is direct. People listen. He has relentless drive and focus. He would give a small party a much bigger voice.

His private-enterprise ethos sits perfectly with Act ideology. He also has strong appeal across the political spectrum. He would reinvigorate Act's fundraising.

It is easy to be indifferent to Act. It is impossible to be indifferent to Banks.

It would also be easy to overstate his potential impact. But he only has to draw a small proportion of centre-right adherents away from National to be effective.

Act insiders believe Banks would add at least two percentage points to the party's rating. That would be enough to have Act verging on the 5 per cent threshold and relevant once more.

Even more tantalising is the outside chance that Banks could collapse the National and Labour vote in Tamaki sufficiently to come through the middle and snatch the seat, thus negating the need for Act to breach the threshold.

He has yet to commit himself - and is thought unlikely to do so until closer to the election. But the odds on him signing up are rated higher than 60 per cent.

The momentum starts rolling today, when Banks is given a speaking slot at Act's conference that will see him pump up the election prospects of the centre-right.

Not surprisingly, there is trepidation that his audition could overshadow Rodney Hide's first conference as leader, although it is hoped Banks' decision to align himself with Act will be seen as an expression of confidence in Hide - and a vote of no-confidence in National.

The conference will see Hide and party president Catherine Judd effectively issue a "back us or lose us" challenge to centre-right voters.

The argument goes like this: Voters should not be fooled that a high priest of market-driven policies now leads the National Party. National has actually moved far closer to the centre under Don Brash's leadership. If Act is not returned to Parliament, there will be no voice for those advocating less tax and less government.

The attack on National will be backed by party research showing that although Act's core vote might be as low as 3 to 4 per cent, the party is still the second choice of nearly 10 per cent of voters. So there is hope. But the surface optimism cannot disguise Act's deeper difficulties.

Hide has made only slow progress in his bid to broaden the party's appeal by softening its rather austere, merciless image.

Act is now paying an awful price for failing to target, capture and hold on to narrow segments of the voting population, such as small businesses, in the way the Greens have done.

The self-proclaimed "party of ideas" also seems to be deficient of exciting new ones.

And while the revolutionary zeal of Sir Roger Douglas is out of fashion, Act suffers for lacking the passion he displayed in espousing party thinking.

Act is still trying to change minds. It is not touching hearts.

Banks would re-inject passion back into the selling of Act's core themes of radical tax cuts, welfare reform, greater choice in education, greater use of private hospital services and more punitive measures to cut crime.

That is one reason why party strategists want Banks campaigning nationwide, rather than just in Tamaki.

The other is that Banks might succeed in only piling up worthless constituency votes in Tamaki that might otherwise have been cast as party votes for Act.

He is understood to be doing private polling to assess his chances in the seat. Those would be helped considerably by National's candidate, Rangitoto College principal Allan Peachey, securing a high ranking on National's list.

That would enable Banks to run a "strategic campaign" persuading National supporters they can safely split their votes, knowing Peachey will still get into Parliament.

Although National is point-blank refusing to help Act by pulling a candidate anywhere, the voters might oblige. They did just that in Tamaki in the 1992 byelection by collapsing the Labour vote in favour of the Alliance.

There is much for Act's governing board to weigh up - above all, perhaps, the potential price to party stability of Banks becoming a candidate.

He will expect a list ranking as high as No 3, behind Hide and his deputy, Muriel Newman. And if Banks also insists on standing in Tamaki, the current candidate, Ken Shirley, will likely have to be recompensed with a list ranking higher than the No 7 slot he was allocated in 2002.

Accommodating Banks adds an unwelcome complication to the coming struggle between existing MPs grappling for high list rankings.

But Banks can probably name his price. Act needs him more than he needs the bother of another election campaign. Act has to make it worth his while.