John Armstrong: Humble pie on menu for Tamihere

The day that John Tamihere finally stops thinking only of John Tamihere is the day he can start on the road to political redemption.

Even then, the Labour Party will take a mighty amount of convincing that rehabilitating him is worth the effort.

Judging from feedback from members, Tamihere has done his chips for good this time.

If the insults fired at the party's women, trade unions and "queers" were not appalling enough, his refusal to retract them has compounded his sins.

But you won't find anyone saying that in the pages of Investigate magazine.

The kind of public trashing Tamihere dished out to colleagues in that journal would have usually seen the perpetrator ostracised, censured, relegated to the most distant of backbenches, and possibly even temporarily or permanently suspended from the Labour caucus.

But the pending election campaign means he will escape punishment.

Tamihere's pivotal status as the sole Maori MP able to communicate effectively with Pakeha voters gives him an extraordinary degree of leverage. The party is shackled to him.

He will defy political gravity this side of the election. But the crash will come.

Apart from the obvious - penance over the next three years might eventually see him rewarded with a junior ministerial role well outside the Cabinet - the worst damage from his application of the paint-stripper to Labour's veneer of unity, paradoxically, is to his own faction in the caucus.

Those MPs on the party's right - of which he is one - will find it more difficult to speak out against the so-called "political correctness" of the left. As far as party debate is concerned, it will be a long time before Tamihere is able to speak out on other than Maori matters.

He has inflamed so many of the party's core constituencies - particularly women voters, upon whom Labour heavily relies - that Tamihere will make their mood even darker if he continues to articulate what he calls the "blokey stuff' on behalf of male, blue-collar voters.

Such talk, previously a major asset to the party, is now a liability. Clark will have to muzzle him on men's rights.

It is well nigh impossible to muzzle Tamihere, however. Like Icarus drawn to fly ever closer to the Sun, Tamihere never encountered a microphone into which he did not feel the need to pour his heart.

For that reason - and despite his reassurances - the party no longer trusts him not to make another "biggest mistake of my life" for which it will have to pay the cost.

There is certainly recognition within Labour that this volatile character has become positively volcanic through the pressures flowing from TV3's exposure of his golden handshake from the Waipareira Trust, the loss of mana from losing his Cabinet post, and the financial burden imposed by his fight to clear his name.

But senior party figures also want to see some signs that his bitterness against those he believes are responsible for forcing him out of the Cabinet and his frustration at not being reinstated after being cleared of wrongdoing are no longer all-consuming.

And so far they don't see any.

They were not heartened by his decision to deliver his qualified apology by way of an attention-seeking "exclusive" for TVNZ's Close Up.

This was clearly revenge against TV3 for breaking the golden handshake story that began his descent from frontbencher-in-the-making to backbencher.

But his going in front of Close Up's huge audience looked a bit too much like another narcissistic "me, me, me" re-run of the John Tamihere Show.

The pattern is now familiar: the massive error of judgment is followed by the abject public apology.

The suspicion is that Tamihere is so used to saying sorry that he has become immune to it. How many times can you apologise for rubbishing your colleagues without devaluing those apologies?

The latest apology would have carried more weight had it also been conveyed to his victims first - and a whole lot sooner.

It would have carried more weight had he retracted those parts of the Investigate interview that are patently absurd, as well as grossly offensive to many in his party.

To label Labour as anti-family just as its landmark Working for Families package is being rolled out must stick in Steve Maharey's craw even more than being called "smarmy".

The Prime Minister must have been sorely tempted when Tamihere offered to resign last Monday. However, the wider political ramifications would have quickly kicked in.

The last thing Labour wants is to give the Maori Party the platform of a byelection, although that would have been avoided with National's agreement.

Invoking the Electoral Act, however, would have required Helen Clark to announce the date for the general election. She does not want to lose that tactical advantage.

Tamihere's departure from Parliament would also have made Labour's battle to hold its Maori seats even tougher. As a bridge to Pakeha, Tamihere is also needed to counter National's renewed efforts to paint the foreshore and seabed law as pro-Maori.

Had he gone voluntarily, his resignation would still have been seen as forced, making him a martyr and Clark the villain.

While he is adamant he will stick with Labour, the party hierarchy is clearly reluctant to discipline him for fear that might lead him to question that attachment this side of polling day - especially as his loyalty will be sorely tested by a lengthy spell in the wilderness afterwards.

The Prime Minister has consequently left the window slightly ajar to his returning to Cabinet - as long as his behaviour is exemplary from here on.

That day was already a long way off even before Tamihere's latest lapse.

He would have had to await the completion of Serious Fraud Office-instigated court cases involving the Waipareira Trust.

Post-election, Labour's share of Cabinet posts will be squeezed anyway by having to accommodate new coalition partners. If there are any spare slots for the right faction, they will have been long filled by colleagues by the time Tamihere is back in the reckoning. And after this week, they will feel less disposed towards him.

Tamihere may have choked when asked to eat on humble pie this week. The party's advice? Keep eating.