John Armstrong: Driving a wedge, the National Party way

To put things politely, National made a complete hash of its last three election campaigns. This year it looks like breaking with that tradition.

On the evidence at its weekend conference, National's campaign will be an emotionally manipulative but shrewd play for control of the political centre. It is designed to drive a wedge between Labour and what National calls "mainstream" New Zealand.

National has already begun doing this with its current billboard adverts. Though they offer a choice between Labour and National - cabs versus cops when you dial 111, excuses or exams when it comes to falling school standards - the loaded wording leaves no choice but to come down on Don Brash's side of the billboard and thus identify with National.

National's conference - doubling as an election convention - revealed how the party further intends to disconnect Labour from "mainstream" New Zealand, a process begun by last month's Budget failing to entertain immediate tax cuts.

National prefers "mainstream" to "middle" New Zealand because membership of the former is not restricted by income.

National is saying the mainstream is "you and me", thus creating an us-versus-them mentality which seeks to portray Labour as pandering to extreme lobbies, noisy minorities and the politically correct.

While National would deliver tax cuts to the struggling mainstream, this scenario has Labour accused of wasting huge dollops of tax revenue on favouring its mates.

National's five core campaign messages - tax relief, ending the Treaty of Waitangi "gravy train", getting people off welfare and into work, stopping violent criminals getting parole and fixing slipping education standards - are based on focus-group research of what worries mainstream New Zealand.

They consequently enable National to claim it speaks for the mainstream, whereas Labour's tax blunder is being exploited as evidence of that party's increasing neglect.

Gerry Brownlee's conference speech used the phrase "mainstream" New Zealanders about 15 times.

He was not alone.

However, the top-table offensive lacked a vital ingredient - the actual detail of National's tax cuts.

It is understood that there are three views in National's caucus on when the policy should be released - as soon as possible, when Helen Clark announces the election date, or at the start of National's formal campaign.

Given National is currently clawing back Labour's lead in the polls regardless, the leadership sees no need to rush out the policy.

That left a vacuum at the conference which speakers sought to fill by labelling Helen Clark the "Prime Moneywaster" and Michael Cullen the "Wastemaster General".

The cheap jibes had serious purpose. If National can persuade voters Labour wastes money big-time, it will be easier to convince them National's tax cuts are affordable.

National is now getting nervous that public expectation of the scale of those cuts is getting too high. Dr Brash is now saying initial reductions will be moderate, but will build in scale as changes are phased in.

That defensiveness combined with the absence of new policy generally left the conference short of things to get excited about - at least until Bill English's standout speech late on Saturday afternoon.

The education spokesman delighted delegates with his common-sense conservatism which went to the heart of mainstream worries about standards and offered straightforward solutions - bulk funding, new single-sex schools and the reporting of student failure in exams.

He got a standing ovation. Unfortunately for National - and the promotion of a crucial policy - the television cameras had long departed.