John Armstrong: Danger lurks in minor party courting rituals

The Maori Party should be warned: the siren calls of the National Party are as deadly as they are alluring.

It may be tempting for Tariana Turia and her colleagues to think they can play off Labour by playing along with National's pretence that it can still form the next Government.

But Labour will not be fooled by this pretty transparent attempt to boost the Maori Party's negotiating leverage.

Fraternising with National is fraught with danger.

National is perfectly within its rights to talk to the Maori Party and other players, such as Peter Dunne's United Future, that are involved in Government-formation discussions with Labour.

But National's approaches should be seen for what they are - spoiling tactics rather than any serious attempt to put together an alternative administration.

National might be dangling some promise of a review of the foreshore and seabed law in front of Turia and Pita Sharples - the failings of which are, after all, the basis of the Maori Party's existence.

But New Zealand First, which determined the final shape of that law, would not countenance any rethink.

And without New Zealand First, National does not have the numbers to govern, even with the Maori Party.

Even if National did have the numbers, any agreement between National and the Maori Party could double as a joint suicide note.

Both parties have ratcheted up expectations among their own supporters to an extent that these can be satisfied only by National introducing policies that punish Maori, while the Maori Party needs the kind of policy "wins" that would make a mockery of Don Brash's Orewa agenda.

Any wheeling and dealing between the two parties can be justified only if circumstances force them into co-habitation.

Otherwise rapprochement will be viewed by both parties' supporters with a mixture of horror and foreboding.

Forget the Maori Party's current round of hui. By casting their party votes overwhelmingly for Labour, Maori have made it absolutely clear they do not want to see Turia and Sharples getting into bed with National.

That is not to say the Maori Party should never back National. The last thing it wants to be is Labour's poodle. That is not a recipe for longevity either.

But for now the Maori Party should bide its time. It is under no pressure to offer Labour anything more than a very limited "co-operation agreement" that gives Helen Clark some comfort on confidence motions, possibly through abstention.

By flirting with National, the Maori Party is in danger of falling into a trap.

With Dunne indicating he does not want to be tied to Labour for the next three years, National just has to talk the Maori Party into voting against Labour for Helen Clark to have difficulty securing a majority.

Winston Peters would then have to switch his preference for New Zealand First to abstain into a positive vote expressly in Labour's favour.

If he continued to abstain, Parliament would be deadlocked. A fresh election would loom. The only beneficiary would be National.

Peters can see that. He would be reluctant to drop his preference for abstention. But he is on record before the election as saying NZ First will not allow any potential minority government to be held to ransom by an "extreme" party.

That gives him latitude to vote positively for Labour - or National.

But there is a critical difference as to how the numbers would fall.

If New Zealand First casts its seven votes for Labour, Clark will not need the votes of the Maori Party or United Future.

If he casts them for National, Don Brash will still need Turia and Dunne on board. That centre-right combination is too dependent on the Maori Party and thus too volatile.

Judging by the progress New Zealand First is making towards reaching an agreement with Labour, Peters has worked out exactly how the cookie crumbles.

That does not mean he will be whooping with joy and participating in some kind of group hug-type photo-opportunity with Clark when the arrangements propping up the new Government are unveiled.

Peters will instead stress that the buttressing provided by New Zealand First has been done in the interests of ensuring stable Government - nothing more and nothing less.

He has said little since the election, but he has made a point of saying that abstention does not mean support. That is debatable, as New Zealand First would be abstaining in Labour's favour. But abstention is the mechanism by which Peters wants to distance his party from a third-term Labour-led minority Government.

And necessarily so.

The hoary old saying that standing in the middle of the road is going to get you run over sooner or later has never sounded more apt. New Zealand First and United Future must feel like potential road-kill.

The centre parties' drubbing at the ballot-box slashed their leverage in post-election negotiations. That has been further slashed by National not being in a realistic position to form a government.

They still risk being hostage to a tottering minority Labour Government as well as being tainted by association with a third-term administration that will inevitably struggle to remain popular.

Peters and Dunne must feel as if a 10-tonne truck in the form of a rejuvenated National Party is bearing down on them and what is left of their essentially conservative-based support.

That is reason aplenty for Dunne to align himself with National, both to position himself as National's natural coalition partner and better represent the prevailing mood of his wealthy Wellington electorate, which is now United Future's parliamentary lifeline.

But escaping Labour's clutches is not that easy.

For Peters and Dunne, the balance of power has become the burden of responsibility.

The onus is on them to put stable Government ahead of survival.

Dunne has more flexibility than Peters. His party's votes - being fewer in number - are not as crucial as New Zealand First's.

But he cannot second-guess whether Peters will abstain or not. He also needs to know what the Maori Party will do.

In fact, neither Dunne, Peters nor Turia can really finalise their intentions until they can be sure of one another's intentions.

No doubt, Labour will have been giving some pointers, suggestions and inducements to prod the process forward. And the options will become clearer when the Maori Party hui are completed tomorrow.

However, it is a complicated game - even without National trying to butt in.