John Armstrong: Brash's hopes were gone by lunchtime

Don Brash's slender hopes of forming the next Government were gone by lunchtime as Saturday morning's final election results tilted the balance further in Labour's favour.

While conceding defeat, Dr Brash did not concede National's right to cobble something together if Helen Clark fails.

But the special votes have given her further crucial advantage.

With Jim Anderton and the Greens in tow, she now just needs the backing of the Maori Party. If push came to shove, she would get that - at least on an interim basis.

But Helen Clark will not take up that option. It remains a fall-back position that strengthens her hand in dealings with NZ First and United Future.

Knowing she could conceivably form a government without them has left Winston Peters and Peter Dunne with a choice: irrelevance, being part of the action with Labour or taking an unrealistic punt on a Brash-led government, which would need National, Act, NZ First and the backing from the Maori Party on confidence votes.

That is not really a choice. And given that Mr Peters and Mr Dunne are already negotiating with Helen Clark by virtue of saying they would talk first with the party that won the most seats, she will have dangled the carrots to keep them at her table.

She wants to secure agreements on confidence with those two leaders because she wants as large a cushion of votes in Parliament as she can get.

That is not simply as insurance against one of her minor partners jumping ship down the track. Labour lost Tariana Turia last term and could not count on Nanaia Mahuta when it mattered.

But the more parties involved in negotiations, the more tricky the juggling act.

The structure of a workable arrangement must take into account the terms on which its parties are willing to co-habit with one another, even though they will deal with Labour alone and not one another.

Likewise, policy concessions offered one partner cannot clash with the positions of other partners.

Mr Anderton is the first building block in constructing the most beneficial arrangement for Labour.

That Labour-Progressive minority coalition would be buttressed by the Greens, either in coalition or outside government under some arrangement which might give that party junior ministerial posts outside Cabinet.

The latter deal would be more acceptable to Mr Dunne, who would be offered a similar arrangement and possibly a minor post for his party's three votes on confidence motions.

Labour would then sign an agreement with Mr Peters that has his party abstaining on confidence votes, thus allowing him to establish some distance between NZ First and a third-term Labour Government.

Labour accepts it might have to settle on a weaker "co-operation agreement" with the Maori Party.

That would place no obligations on how the latter votes in Parliament, but would enable the two parties to consult on legislation and other matters.

With NZ First abstaining, the net result would give Labour 60 guaranteed votes in Parliament against the 50 belonging to National and Act, leaving the Maori Party's four votes to go either way without threatening the Government's majority.

This would be a comfortable margin - one that would vitally give an impression of stability.

Helen Clark's "inclusive" approach in bringing other parties into Labour's embrace may be the difference between a government that is up and running and one that is up and wobbling.