John Armstrong: Brash must lift game or go

A week dominated by job cuts topped off by Michael Cullen's stunning gaffe over unemployment forecasts - the National Party could not have hoped for a better run-up to Don Brash's big splash at Orewa next Tuesday.

Or could more have been done? Chewing the fat over lunch this week, one press gallery journalist mused that if he were Brash, he would have called a press conference on the back of the lay-offs and set out National's 10-point plan for fixing the economy.

In other words, National should have grabbed the opportunity then and there to ram home its message.

But apart from issuing one press statement, Brash largely left his finance spokesman John Key to needle Cullen, whose week of economic woe was crowned by him mistakenly suggesting unemployment will jump by 20,000 this year - way over Treasury forecasts.

True, Brash has rejigged his earlier draft of this year's Orewa epistle to give far more emphasis to the economy. And, understandably, his strategists would not have wanted to upstage Orewa, which offers a rare opportunity for a Leader of the Opposition to reach out to voters unobstructed by opponents.

Even so, the question remains: is National really going to take the bull by the horns or sit back and wait (and hope) the Labour-led Government's popularity will slump of its own accord so National can walk into office in 2008?

Ignoring Cullen's shocker - and that was a one-day wonder - Labour is unlikely to be the easy target it was last year when it proffered such gifts as Cullen's "chewing gum" tax cut and George Hawkins' mishandling of the police portfolio.

Labour is steering away from the controversial. Its political correctness agenda is dead. This year is going to be all about "management".

That puts the onus on Brash and the rest of his front bench to lift their game. Exactly how will be thrashed out at a three-day caucus in Taupo after Waitangi Day and before the resumption of Parliament the following week.

National's front bench is probably functioning at 70 per cent capacity - and that is being generous. Yet even a fully functioning front bench cannot carry a struggling leader.

Brash's shortcomings in Parliament could be tolerated last term because he was making such a big impact outside the House. National could close its eyes and believe his tenure as Leader of the Opposition was a brief interlude before he became Prime Minister.

Now, three years of unrewarding slog stand between Brash and occupancy of Premier House.

He is no longer the novice who could get away with playing the political innocent. Voters have fixed their opinions of him. He is going to have to make much more of an impact in Parliament to make one outside.

There is a common assumption that Parliament does not matter, that it is an irrelevant talkshop whose proceedings are watched by a few sad political junkies.

Well, sorry. To use a Brashism, that is baloney. Parliament does matter. It matters because politics is about power and therefore about winning. It is essential you be seen to be winning in the forum where you daily confront your enemy.

In Parliament, there is no place to hide. If the leader is struggling, it is painfully obvious. It is devastating to morale and ultimately corrosive of a party's self-confidence, drive, discipline and unity. Before long, the muttering turns to plotting.

Even making allowances for Brash, National cannot exude confidence about winning in 2008 if it is worried that every time the leader gets to his feet in Parliament he will get trashed by the Prime Minister.

It is those nagging worries which in part fuel the speculation Brash will be rolled.

Orewa will confront that speculation simply because it must do so.

It is understood Brash has taken on board some of the criticisms of his rather academic, wooden delivery which makes it so easy for Labour to brush him aside.

Expect a more aggressive Brash in coming months - but not aggression for aggression's sake. It will be aggression born of anger at Labour's way of doing things.

It is not clear how much of the "new" Brash will be unveiled next Tuesday - and it has to be stressed he is not going to try to be someone he isn't.

However, the intention is that Orewa at least shows him reinvigorated and driven by a renewed purpose which sends the message he is is here to stay and busy building a Government-in-waiting.

This year's speech will be different in other ways.

The two previous Orewa blockbusters on welfare and race were written in different circumstances with different objectives. They were all about re-establishing National's ideological identity with voters ahead of an election.

That done, National is now engaged in a post-election analysis of what went wrong. Brash and senior colleagues want to fix those things which caused unnecessary aggravation - such as the ambiguity over nuclear-powered ship visits.

Work is also under way on examining why some groups of voters were turned off by National - at-home mothers, for example, who feared National's tax cuts required Government spending on social services to be slashed.

Then there are the voters National simply ignored - well-off, environment-conscious urban liberals, for example.

National has learned it must hunt for votes in the most unlikely places to win an MMP election. However, there is no point unveiling radical policy at this stage of the electoral cycle.

As a result, Brash's colleagues are avoiding talking up next week's speech, instead talking down any likelihood of a leadership change in the near future.

One factor is the shift in power within the caucus. Bill English's burgeoning influence has seen the former leader move closer to Brash. Key too has joined Brash's inner circle, which also includes deputy leader Gerry Brownlee and, less overtly, Murray McCully.

Those harbouring serious leadership aspirations - English, Key and Brownlee - are now inside the Brash tent and working for him.

Brash is obviously punting on them blocking one another from grabbing his job.

Meanwhile, the line is being spun that Key will not mount a challenge because the second term MP realises he still needs more political experience under his belt.

At the same time, the finance spokesman is being warned that the caucus will not tolerate what one MP terms a "campaign of destabilisation" against Brash.

Key does not need to bother instigating one. He can wait.

If Brash cannot deliver the goods - particularly when the political environment is increasingly favourable to the Opposition - the mantle of leadership will simply fall on Key's shoulders by default.