Fran O'Sullivan: My money's on the Don

The Don may just be the first recent National Party leader to survive an election defeat and lead his party into battle again at the (disgraceful) age of 68.

Conventional wisdom - that is, the views of press gallery journalists conditioned by the National Party's well-known fondness for axing their political leaders after an election defeat - says Don Brash is already for the chopper.

Despite running National to its highest percentage showing in a general election since 1990 - 39.1 per cent - and swelling the numbers of MPs in his caucus from 27 to 48, the only factor that really counts is his defeat at the hands of Helen Clark, Labour's accomplished Prime Minister.

The putative heir apparents, Finance spokesperson John Key and former National leader Bill English will sometime this year get their allies to start the destabilising process that precedes most political coups if Brash doesn't step aside of his own volition. Neither Key nor English will leave their own fingerprints anywhere near the assassination scene.

That's the drum that a bunch of bored but influential journalists will start to pump from their PCs anytime soon.

But my money's on the Don defying conventional wisdom unless or until the political polls turn on either National or him.

Here's why.

First: Follow the money - the National Party does.

The Nats cleaned up bigtime at the recent election pulling in far more cash under Brash's leadership than other leaders have mustered. Partly that's because big business - and the bunch of offshore tax exiles that switched their funds from Act to back National - are confident that Brash will implement a forward-thinking agenda if elected as PM.

Many see a Brash/Key combo as much more powerful than Key/English or English/Key.

Second: Do the math.

Everybody else is - not just Brash, Key and English - but also the 45 other members of the National caucus.

The maxim - "the Leader giveth and the Leader taketh away" should be kept front of mind.

Brash has put National's old stagers - the 22 repeat MPs - on notice that they will have to perform to hold on to their prime spokesmanships (which usually translate to Cabinet jobs) in the face of stiff competition from the 25 newcomers. This gives Brash plenty of room to use patronage to ensure a strong support base for himself when he reshuffles his pack.

Third: Do the numbers. Note - this is not the same as doing the math. The numbers I'm talking about here are the collapsing economic growth rate, which is verging on turning recessionary, the balance of payments crisis, rampant inflation, absurdly high interest rates, Australian Treasurer Peter Costello's planned tax cuts which will entice even more Kiwis to cross the ditch. This is a vastly more favourable terrain on which Brash can set loose his parliamentary attack dogs to monster the Government than the golden weather of the past six years.

Fourth: Youth is seriously over-rated - Mick Jagger is still strutting his stuff for baby boomers and their kids.

Certainly Brash is putting it about there's nothing wrong with having a 68-year-old (which he will be in 2008, the presumptive date of the next election) lead National into its next contest.

When he first left the cushy job of Reserve Bank governor for the more brutalising world of national politics, Brash used to muse to journalistic ageists that 60 was not really all that old. After all, Winston Churchill was Prime Minister (twice) in his 70s.

Since defeat Brash has added a few more names to the ageing leaders' repertoire: Among them Charles de Gaulle, who he delights in pointing out became President of France at 68, serving for seven years in that role, and American movie star turned politician Ronald Reagan, who first became United States President at 70 and was re-elected for a second term aged 74.

I could cynically add (and did when I called him up this week) others like Pol Pot, the former Khmer Rouge leader that laid waste to Cambodia, and MaoTse Tung, depicted as a monster in 2005's biography du jour Mao, who did not behave all that gracefully in office.

But we're now in an age where retirement is increasingly just a state of mind for many boomers who'd rather keep working on to their 70s, so why not a PM?

Fifth: The in-check or political cancel-out factor.

Reality is both Key and English want the top job and it's in neither of their interests to get the guns out before they are assured that, firstly, the Don is dead meat, and, secondly, enough of the troops will back them.

A failed coup would simply curtail either man's political prospects for some time.

Sixth: The polls are still favourable.

Brash admits that he did fully intend to stand down as political leader if he lost the election.

But he's since changed his mind.

He argues that he only went after English's job in the first place because National was below 20 per cent in the polls and the leader's own rating as preferred PM had dwindled to single figures.

Brash says if that happens again under his leadership he will stand down.

Don't bet on it - The Don has enough of the National brand bred into his bones now. He'll only go if pushed.

Meantime, you can bet there will be no repeats of those election turnoffs such as being filmed climbing arthritically in through the top of racing cars.

The Don does now know some of his limits - one thing he can't do is Mick Jagger's strut.