Fran O'Sullivan: 20 years on, we're still the losers

Many New Zealanders felt a burst of national pride when former Labour leader David Lange thumbed his nose at the United States and pressed ahead with legislation to ban nuclear warships from our ports.

But 20 years on, it is clear that New Zealand's nuclear-free status has come at a big price.

New Zealand will not be invited to New York for a new regional security dialogue next month. Only US allies such as Japan and Australia will join Condoleeza Rice to talk about the strategic realities of China's rise, North Korea and terrorist threats in the Asia-Pacific region.

Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer says if New Zealand "was ever to re-establish its alliance relationship" with the US, it would likely become more involved in the region.

But as with the Anzus relationship, New Zealand's involvement remains a no-go.

"You are only a friend - not an ally," emphasises Mr Downer.

Make no mistake about it, our nuclear-free badge is also why Australia cast New Zealand aside from planned negotiations on a trilateral free-trade deal with the US in order to pursue its own interests.

It since secured a deal giving it greater access to the US consumer market. We are not even in the negotiating queue.

Prime Minister Helen Clark and Trade Negotiations Minister Jim Sutton have argued strenuously for New Zealand to open negotiations. The private sector has also supported Government efforts with joint lobbying in Washington.

But although Helen Clark committed the SAS to back the US military efforts in Afghanistan and helped out (for a short time) with the reconstruction effort in Iraq, the nuclear issue has continued to be a sticking point, while other small countries that have strategic utility to the US - such as Jordan - get deals.

Is there a change in the air? The Government hopes a visit by US Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns will ease relations. New US Trade Representative Rob Portman is also said to be more sympathetic to New Zealand than his predecessor, Robert Zoellick.

The US clearly hopes a post-election dialogue with New Zealand on the nature of the joint relationship may create new pathways.

But it may take a change to a Democratic Administration before significant change occurs.