Election 2005: Commentary

UPDATE:

11.40pm - Don Brash arrived at Alexandra Park in Auckland at 11.20pm with a smile on his face and traditional blue tie around his neck but did not utter a word as he moved through the media throng.

But with just one per cent separating National (39) from Labour (40) he had little to smile about quite yet.

"This job is not for the faint hearted. It's been an exciting competition and the National Party has come back," party president Judith Kirk said as she introduced her leader.

The crowd's chants of "Don, Don, Don," soon gave way to "Don Brash in the House."

He said it had been a "very long night, and very good night."

We have almost doubled our party vote from the last election. And we've brought in 11 new electorates."

"As you know we're not quite there yet. We can't yet claim a victory but I'm certainly not conceding defeat."

Dr Brash noted special votes have yet to be counted, but whatever that result there was the "small matter of building a coalition Government and its not at all clear who will be able to do that."

However he assured his party faithful that he would "endeavour to put together a National-led Government."

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said: "Don Brash has maintained an unbroken record of never having won an election."

Mr Brash has twice stood for election and lost in 1980 and 1981 when he fought and lost a by-election, then the general election, for East Coast Bays.

Mr Peters said it appeared National did not have the numbers to form a government.

But New Zealand First had "the balance of responsibility".

11.15pm - Rodney Hide defied his critics taking Epsom with a 3200-plus majority, keeping himself and his party Act in Parliament.

He arrived at the Commerce Club in Remuera at 10.30pm to cheers and celebrations, and a raft of "Act is Back" banners.

Hide's first message was that his party would need to rebuild.

"We've lost a lot of talented MPs - some of the best MPs in our Parliament. We need to rebuild the Act Party and get back the calibre of MPs that we're famous for."

Hide credited his win to campaigning hard and "We never give in, we campaigned to the end and are a very positive people".

At it's peak some 400 supporters joined him.

"No-one in this room doubted that we would win the seat of Epsom, not one of you."

Hide's closest rival, National's Richard Worth, refused to concede up until the last minute winning just 10,000 votes to Hide's 13,000.

11.00pm - High profile Labour MP John Tamihere bowed out of politics after condeding to the new cabbie on the Tamaki Makaurau block, Pita Sharples.

While Labour overwhelmingly took the party vote in the seat it was the Maori Party co-leader who stormed home with a 1200 vote majority.

But Tamihere was not looking too upset and instead called the loss "liberating".

He said the Maori Party had run an extraordinary campaign and that they were "all over us like a rash"

10.55pm - Northcote has a new MP tonight after National's Jonathan Coleman ousted Labour's Ann Hartley.

Mr Coleman, a rising star in National's ranks, last night held a 2359 majority.

Ousted is Labour's Ann Hartley, the 62-year-old incumbent, former North Shore mayor and currently Parliament's deputy speaker. A grandmother of three, Mrs Hartley has lived in the electorate all her married life.

Mr Coleman is a health consultant with PricewaterhouseCoopers, Jonathan Coleman, tipped as a rising star in National's ranks. The 38-year-old Ponsonby resident returned to New Zealand in 2001 after eight years. He worked in Britain and had a stint with the Australian Flying Doctor Service.

Spanning the communities of Northcote, Birkenhead, Chatswood, Beach Haven and Hillcrest, the seat is a study in contrasts. Despite rapid gentrification by young couples and new immigrants drawn to relatively cheaper housing across the bridge, Northcote Pt and Birkenhead are still the locales of old money and character villas, while state housing dominates central Northcote. Middle-income earners pad out the large Glenfield catchment, while the nouveau riche can be found in coastal Beach Haven, where property prices have soared. Despite this, much of Beach Haven and Birkdale still rank highly on the Deprivation Index, a calculation based on the proportion of welfare-dependent people, unemployed, single-parent families and households below a certain income threshold.

The electorate is demographically similar to the New Zealand average.

10.50pm: One of the big blows for Labour has been the loss of its Aoraki seat in South Canterbury.

A massive swing to National in the south Canterbury seat saw National candidate Jo Goodhew tip out Labour's Agriculture Minister Jim Sutton by a whopping 6,616 votes.

Mr Sutton went into the election with a 6453-vote majority, but he is facing a backlash from school closures in the region, his involvement in the Prime Minister's speeding motorcade and his Government's controversial rural land access policies. Thirteen schools have been closed in the region.

Ms Goodhew, a 44-year mother of three estimates she has knocked on the doors of about 10,000 homes and businesses in Aoraki since the campaign began.

Mr Sutton has been MP in the region since 1993.

About 41,759 are enrolled to vote in Aoraki and almost half are aged 50 or over.

Ms Goodhew is a trained nurse and specialist in the crime prevention field.

10.45pm: The two Hamilton seats appear to have split their loyalties.

In Hamilton West at 10.30pm, Labour's sitting MP Martin Gallagher was ahead of National's Tim MacIndoe by just 600 votes, with all but 3 per cent of the votes counted.

But Hamilton East had swung strongly to National.

National newcomer David Bennett had a 5355 majority over Labour's Dianne Yates.

Mr Gallagher watched as his 5574-vote majority has been drastically trimmed.

Traditionally the Hamilton West seat has gone with the Government.

Ms Yates fought hard to hold Hamilton East. But the swing to National wiped out her 614-vote majority.

Mr Bennett is a National Party up-and-comer, a former accountant-turned-farmer who is still learning the political ropes.

10.38pm: With 97.4% of polls counted (seats in Parliament shown in parentheses)
Labour: 40.61% (50)
National: 39.75% (49)
NZ First: 5.86% (7)
Greens: 5.09% (6)
United Future: 2.74% (3)
Maori: 1.95% (4)
Act: 1.52% (2)
Progressive: 1.21% (1)

10.28pm: With 95.7% of polls counted:
Labour: 40.50%
National: 39.84%
NZ First: 5.87%
Greens: 5.13%
United Future: 2.75%
Maori: 1.92%
Act: 1.51%
Progressive: 1.21%

10.20pm: With 95 per cent of the vote counted Labour Party leads with 40.45 per cent - 50 seats and the National Party has 39.92 per cent - 49 seats.

10.10pm - Labour edged ahead of National for the first time - albeit extremely fractionally.

Helen Clark was not at the Mt Eden War Memorial Hall when the tide began to turn but her 500 faithful supporters took up the chant "three more years, three more years" immediately after TV3 screened the 40.26 to 40.14 per cent tally, with 91.1 per cent of votes counted.

Clark's staff said they were not sure when the incumbent Prime Minister would arrive but thought she would be watching the coverage at home a little longer yet. She was watching at her home with her husband and parents.

The party faithful had been glued to the screens at the hall for most of the night but had been mostly quiet until the count started moving upwards in Labours favour.

10.09pm - Labour has moved into the lead, with 91.1% of polls counted:
Labour: 40.26%
National: 40.15%
NZ First: 5.84%
Greens: 5.16%

10.08pm - Jeanette Fitzsimons arrived at the Grahamstown Hall in Thames with her husband Harry and a confident smile.

A small group of supporters cheered her on despite her lacklustre showing in the electorate race - most looking to the party vote tally which at 90 per cent count had the Greens over the crucial 5 per cent threshold.

Fitzsimons said she was confident that tally may yet climb more but warned supporters they were in for long night. She said it was going to be a real MMP Parliament.

"There is a lot of talking to be done."

10.00pm: Dover Samuels was the first MP to concede his seat tonight as the Maori Party's Hone Harawira stormed ahead in Te Tai Tokerau.

With almost three quarters of the vote counted Samuels was almost 2000 votes behind Harawira.

In a short speech Samuels said the Maori Party had better repeal the Foreshore and Seabed Act, as per their pre-election commitment "otherwise the Maori nation will be subject to the biggest political con job in the country's history."

Samuels closed his speech with a waiata and sung You Are My Sunshine.

9.55pm: With 87.3% of polls counted, Labour has closed the gap even further:
National: 40.37%
Labour: 40.01%
NZ First: 5.84%
Greens: 5.11%
United Future: 2.79%
Maori: 1.84%

9.41pm: With 77.7% of polls counted the gap between National and Labour is getting tighter. These are the leading parties:
National: 40.89%
Labour: 39.60%
NZ First: 5.82%
Greens: 5.09%
United Future: 2.79%
Maori: 1.77%

9.25pm: Act appears destined to return to Parliament on the strength of leader Rodney Hide's showing in Epsom. Mr Hide leads National Party incumbent Richard Worth by 2085 votes with 52.9% of votes counted (Hide: 8368, Worth: 6283). On current party vote results, Act would have two MPs, Mr Hide, and Heather Roy.

9.20pm: With 55.6% of polls counted, the gap between National and Labour has narrowed to barely two points. These are the leading parties:
National: 41.36%
Labour: 39.20%
NZ First: 5.75%
Greens: 5.11%

9.04pm: With 40.4% of polls counted, these are the leading parties:
National: 42.56%
Labour: 38.25%
NZ First: 5.70%
Greens: 5.08%

9.00pm: It's a tight race in Tamaki Makaurau, where Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples leads Labour's John Tamihere 993-889 with 19.1% of votes counted. Tamihere told TV1 news that it was "a tight one".  He said South Auckland had not spoken yet and when more of the results come through it would paint a better picture.

8.50pm: New Zealand may not have seen the demise of the Act Party, with leader Rodney Hide in front as votes are counted in Epsom. Mr Hide has 2210 votes, while incumbent National Party MP Richard Worth has 1929 votes. 11.8% of the votes in Epsom have been counted. Nationwide, Act has 1.60% of the party vote with 30.4% of polls counted, which would translate into two seats in Parliament.

8.45pm: Almost a quarter of polls have been counted, and National's lead over Labour has decreased slightly to 7 points. National has 44.14%, Labour has 36.83%. The Greens are edging close to the crucial 5% threshold with 4.95%.

8.41pm: Winston Peters is facing the possibility of defeat in Tauranga, although his NZ First Party could still be back in Parliament on the strength of the party vote. Peters trails National's Bob Clarkson 1750-1209 with 9.7% of votes counted in Tauranga, but NZ First is ahead of the 5% party vote threshold with 5.69% with 23.4% of polls counted.

8.40pm: In the early stages Epsom was looking extremely tight with just 96 votes in it, but with Rodney Hide ahead of National's Richard Worth, the mood was of provisional excitement.8.40pThe leader of the Act party was not expected in to the Commerce Club in Remuera until 10pm along with other party faithfuls like Richard Prebble.

Some 200 supporters were in place by 8pm though, enjoying the standard fare of cheerios, sausage rolls and club sandwiches.

While the vote count was looking promising for Hide - the Act Party's only chance of survival - the figures were not so good for Owen Jennings, sixth on the party list.

If the current trend continues only Hide and Heather Roy will make it into Parliament.

8.35pm: With 8.5 per cent of polling places counted in Tamaki Makaurau, Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples leads Labour's John Tamihere 449-380.

8.30pm: With 16.3 per cent of polling places counted:
National : 45.45%
Labour: 35.47%
NZ First: 5.85%
United Future: 2.88%
Maori: 1.48%
Act: 1.69%
Progressive: 1.09%
Green: 4.85%

8.23pm: With 12.8 per cent of polling places counted, the National Party has 44.92 per cent of the party vote, Labour trails with 35.70 per cent. The Greens, who must achieve 5 per cent to stay in Parliament, have 4.72 per cent. NZ First have 5.95 per cent.
Projected seats in Parliament would see National able to govern with 57 seats plus the support of NZ First (8 projected seats) on confidence and supply.

8.15pm: Latest results with 9.1 per cent of the votes counted:
National Party 44.79 per cent, 57 seats
Labour Party 35.74 per cent, 46 seats
New Zealand First Party 6.03 per cent, 8 seats
United Future New Zealand 2.99 per cent, 4 seats
Maori Party 1.56 per cent, 4 seats
Act 1.72 per cent, 2 seats
Jim Anderton's Progressive 1.08 per cent, 1 seat
Green Party 4.77 per cent, 0 seats

8.05pm - Where the parties and leaders are on election night:

Labour: Labour supporters are at the Prime Minister's campaign headquarters at Mt Eden War Memorial Hall, but Helen Clark will not be there until later tonight. She will be monitoring the early results from home with her husband Peter Davis and her parents.

National Party: Alexandra Park in Auckland. Newstalk ZB political editor Helene Ambler said the mood is already a huge contrast to that of three years ago when National recorded its worst election defeat in its history. Campaign organisers expect more than 900 party faithful to be there tonight as results begin to trickle in. Former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley is expected to attend.

Green Party: It is already a hive of activity at the Green Party headquarters in Thames. A double booking has meant last minute adjustments to Grahamstown Hall, where co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons hopes to hear she will be part of a new government. Earlier today a papercraft fair was held in the hall, leaving just an hour for helpers to ensure the venue was ready for tonight's events.

Act: Headquarters in Epsom, Newstalk ZB at the scene says there is an atmosphere of confidence among the largely young crowd. Based on the most recent opinion polls, Rodney Hide must win the seat if Act is to have any representation in Parliament.

NZ First: Tauranga, the mood at the New Zealand First headquarters is very quiet. Party leader Winston Peters has faced strong opposition in his electorate, particularly from National's Bob Clarkson, in a campaign which has been bruising in the final days.

Maori Party: Supporters are gathering at Whangaehu Marae, south of Wanganui. It is the home marae of party co-leader Tariana Turia, who is there dressed in a feather cloak. She says she is excited by the night ahead and is buoyed by the fact that extra ballot papers had to be flown into the Far North.

7.55pm: With 5.5 per cent of the votes counted the National Party leads with 43.67 per cent of the vote which would translate into 56 seats and the Labour Party has 36.96 per cent, 47 seats.

7.51pm: With 5.9 per cent of polls reported in Epsom, Act Party leader Rodney Hide has a narrow lead over National's Richard Worth 1550-1454.

7.50pm: With six per cent of polls reported in the Tauranga electorate, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters trails National Party candidate Bob Clarkson 1460-1056.