Editorial: Nuclear risk must not be ignored

Opinion

John Kerry, during his unsuccessful challenge for the United States presidency, voiced the view that nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat facing the world. Few queried his opinion but, with events in Iraq occupying Americans, few awarded it much attention. Now, however, confirmation of Mr Kerry's fears has arrived with North Korea's admission that it has nuclear weapons.

Those in the know were not surprised by the disclosure. US policy towards the communist state has for some time assumed nuclear arms - and the likelihood that a million or more may die if an all-out war were to break out on the Korean peninsula. But Pyongyang's admission provides a timely warning that proliferation is no longer an issue that can remain on the international backburner.

North Korea had, in fact, rather slipped out of the spotlight before its announcement. The focus was on Iran, and attempts to get it to scrap activities such as uranium enrichment, which can be used to make nuclear bombs. The European Union is negotiating with Tehran, a process that seems to take a step back for every one forward. That, of course, is in Iran's interests if its intention is to produce nuclear arms.

North Korea, by way of contrast, has made little secret of its nuclear designs since being caught in 2002 running a covert uranium-enrichment programme. It responded, within months, by expelling international inspectors, quitting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and restarting its plutonium-based nuclear weapons programme. Its plutonium facilities had been frozen in return for oil shipments and other benefits under a 1994 deal with the US.

Efforts to disarm North Korea have involved three rounds of six-nation talks, with delegations from the US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea. Disappointingly, they have been characterised by the same sort of inertia as that pervading negotiations with Iran. There has been much rhetoric and searching for concessions by the North Koreans, and no substantive progress. Now, Pyongyang says it is suspending its participation in the talks for an "indefinite period".

This amounts to brinkmanship by the North Koreans. The impoverished country brings few chips to the negotiating table. And, in reality, its small nuclear arsenal represents a limited threat. As the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, noted, the Americans have a sufficient deterrent on the Korean peninsula to "deal with any potential threat from North Korea".

Equally, however, the Korean admission represents the first time a rogue state has possessed nuclear weapons - and threatened global nuclear stability. The international community must react effectively. President George W. Bush has placed his faith in the six-nation talks, rather than embarking on bilateral negotiations or calling on the United Nations. His hope is that North Korea's neighbours - China in particular - can bring a strong influence to bear. But most immediately, that sway is having to be used just to get the Koreans back to the negotiating table.

North Korea's announcement should, in fact, be the trigger for an international initiative to deal with nuclear proliferation. The UN cannot simply accept that the process is inevitable. In 1970, it was the orchestrator of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which, among other things, laid nuclear plants open to inspection. But there was never enough international pressure to ensure the treaty was fully implemented.

Over the past few years, there have been patchy signs of progress. Inspections under the treaty have been made stricter, while an increased US focus on counter-proliferation strategies sponsored the Proliferation Security Initiative for intercepting nuclear cargoes at sea. Now, however, there is every reason for a concerted international effort to halt proliferation. The stakes have been raised, and the danger cannot be ignored.