Editorial: National lagging on policy

Nothing can be taken for granted in the run-up to polling day on September 17. That much is apparent from the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey, which reveals a startling turnaround in the fortunes of the major parties in the space of a month.

The Labour Party, which in the June poll trailed National by almost four points, now enjoys an advantage of more than six points. A trend of gathering support for a change of government has been reversed. Yet any celebration in Labour's ranks should be muted, given the clear evidence of a highly volatile electorate.

What will concern National Party strategists is that support for Labour increased uniformly during the period of polling, from July 20 to July 27.

This was not an outcome shaped by Labour's flourish on student loans, which was delivered on the final day of the survey. Other factors were already in play, many, perhaps, associated with National's relative inactivity.

Details of the survey, which will be published in the Herald over the next few days, show that health was the most important issue for those polled. All the electorate has received from National on this, however, is a few principles drip-fed by its health spokesman. A date for the release of its policy, a pivotal point in the campaign, remains unspecified.

National may, likewise, have been marked down for reticence over its tax-cut programme. Additionally, the party's damping down of expectation has put paid to starry-eyed notions. Most of those surveyed who were prepared to guess what they would receive now expect no more that $20 extra each week. Taxation remains an important issue; it is the third most significant for those surveyed, behind health and education. But a strong point of difference between the two parties is not being tilled.

The poll also suggests a sizeable core of voters are worried by the limited parliamentary experience of the National leader, Don Brash. That number, among those surveyed, outweighs those who would see him as a fresh face tilting at the jaded ranks of a two-term Administration. The view will probably have been underpinned by fumblings by Dr Brash over the past few weeks, notably over nuclear policy and in his relationship with Grey Power.

Another influence, although not identified by the survey, may have been the London bombings. Labour has worked hard to implant the idea that New Zealand troops would have taken part in the invasion of Iraq had the country been governed by a National Administration at the time, and that this would have made New Zealand a target of terrorism. The London bombings, whatever the reluctance of the Blair Government to make the connection, hammered home the potential consequence of acting as a deputy for President George W. Bush.

New Zealand First is the other party to see its stocks slump significantly in this poll. It is down almost five points to 7.1 per cent. A clear majority of those surveyed wants its leader, Winston Peters, to declare before the election whom he would prefer as a coalition partner. Clearly, there is a wish for certainty, not a repeat of the long-winded bargaining that ensued when NZ First held the balance of power in 1996.

This poll followed a period during which National lay relatively fallow. It suggests that an electorate denied policy, vision and imagination by an aspiring government may retreat to familiar ground. Not that, as previous volatility has demonstrated, it is necessarily content to stay there.