Colin James: Shifting polls look good for Labour

A few weeks ago Labour strategist Peter Hodgson set media hares running in search of an early election when he told a press conference Labour had picked up a change of mood - but that he expected it to take some time to feed into the polls.

Others in Labour were at the time reporting a similar - though only slight - shift. There has been some supporting evidence in recent lifts in consumer and business confidence (Colmar Brunton for TVOne and the National Bank monthly survey of business opinion).

Also approval of the Government has lifted in several polls, including today's Herald DigiPoll: 49 per cent say the Government is heading in the right direction, up from 40 per cent in June.

All of that reads comfortingly for Labour. But none of it means Helen Clark is necessarily on track for a third term.

First, National campaigners continue to report by far the best reception since 1990 (a landslide election).

This at the least reflects National's recovery of its core vote under Don Brash's transformational leadership and may also reflect an underlying mood for change - hinted at by large poll shifts in National's favour in the first half of 2004 and in the late autumn-early winter this year.

A similar shift in the campaign month therefore cannot be ruled out.

Moreover, while there now appears to be solid over-35 per cent support for Labour and for National, much of the remaining 30 per cent appears susceptible to giving pollsters top-of-the-mind responses to events, promises and scandals rather than a considered, lasting indication of how they will vote.

There is also the complicated arithmetic for small parties to do yet.

Will the Greens get 5 per cent? How many seats will New Zealand First, United Future and the Maori Party get?

Judging by past elections, we will not get a tight fix on that until close to election day.