Colin James: Election on a knife-edge

Anything could happen in the seven weeks to election day, according to the Herald poll of polls.

Labour and National are closely locked after this week's polls. Averaging the past four polls gives Labour 41 per cent and National 38, close to yesterday's DigiPoll figures.

That is the reverse of two weeks ago, when National was averaging 40 per cent and Labour 37 per cent and a big switch from March: Labour 45 per cent, National 34 per cent. Then few believed National would be a serious contender.

The polls indicate both major parties now have a fairly solid core vote of 35 per cent or so.

But, of course, this is not just a two-horse race. The small parties are likely to decide which gets to govern.

New Zealand First's latest average is a little over 7 per cent (down from a peak average of 10 per cent in June) and the Greens' average is a little under 6 per cent. Add New Zealand First to National and they total nearly 46 per cent. The Greens and Labour total a little over 46 per cent. Knife-edge stuff.

United Future (average bang on 2 per cent) will also be in the mix, but it can swing either way. So that would make the Maori party, average 2.4 per cent as the kingmaker right now.

The chart shows the fortunes since the 2002 election of a combination of Labour, Jim Anderton (worth one seat), the Greens and United Future (the red line) versus National, New Zealand First and United Future (the blue line).