Brian Rudman: Region being left in the dark over power supply

On January 20, 1998, the first of four cables supplying Auckland CBD with electricity failed. Over the next four weeks, the remaining three collapsed, bringing the city to its knees. Never again, we all pledged. But after reading the scary vision power lines company Vector is painting in its just released submission to the Electricity Commission's inquiry into the city's power supply, I'm not so sure.

Vector is "becoming increasingly concerned about the risk to Auckland's supply as early as summer 2007 (18 months away) with all plant operating, let alone the added risk of Otahuhu B tripping, or being unavailable during peak load times (which, given normal operational expectations, is expected from time to time)".

In other words, even with the local power station at capacity and with no glitches on the supply lines into the city, we could face outages. If Otahuhu was to go on the blink, things would get much worse.

The submission says that to better manage short-term risks, "consideration should also be given to temporarily locating barge-based generators fuelled by distillate north of the Auckland isthmus". It brings back memories of all those generators thudding away along Queen St just seven years ago. Even if we concede a certain shell-shocked cautiousness in Auckland's power bureaucracy following 1998, the Vector submission does trigger off that "here we go again" alarm that Auckland watchers know so well.

While Vector is playing the Jeremiah, Todd Energy, the country's biggest gas supplier, is just as quick to seize the main chance, riding in from the other angle and proposing to build one or more 200MW gas-powered electricity plants in Auckland "providing sufficient capacity for the foreseeable future". Two of the possible sites "are in the heart of Auckland", the third to the south.

This plant, or plants, would ensure "there is sufficient capacity to overcome any shortfall in 2010 as expected by the commission".

Of course, when Todd made its submission, it wasn't privy to Vector's prediction that doomsday could come three years earlier, thanks, in part, says the Vector submission, to the availability of "cheap, small-scale air conditioners ... now in Auckland's shops".

Welcome, if that's the appropriate word, to the brave new world of market-driven electricity supply and demand. It's enough to make you wonder why our masters haven't ever considered the idea of planning such matters instead.

The present flurry of interest in Auckland power supplies arises from Transpower's decision to replace the existing 200km national grid line between Otahuhu and Whakamaru with a bigger and more powerful 440kV line. Transpower says it's needed by 2010 to avoid blackouts. People living under the path of the new line are outraged.

Todd Energy is not the only alternative solution to pop up. A similar proposal emerged a month ago from state-owned Genesis Energy. That was for a gas-fired station near Helensville on the shores of the Kaipara Harbour. It could be fuelled from either the Cardiff natural gas well in Taranaki, 40 per cent owned by Genesis, or - if that did not prove suitable - by imported gas.

Of course both do have to contend with the little problem of the capacity of the gas pipeline serving Auckland. Genesis says it's large enough to provide gas to run a 240MW station on the Kaipara. Of course if Todd, down the line, were to extract gas for its initial 200MW plant, that presumably wouldn't leave much over for Kaipara. So it's one or the other to begin with at least.

There is even talk, if all else fails, of picking up Contact Energy's small emergency 80-100MW power station at Whirinaki in Hawkes Bay, and trucking it through to Auckland.

In the free-market situation, of course, any of the above could happen - or nothing.

Transpower's recipe for keeping Auckland all lit up is to upgrade the lines by 2010. If the plan meets electricity commission's approval, Transpower would be entitled to recover the costs for the line from electricity industry participants.

If the commission says no, where does that leave Auckland? Sitting around waiting for the market to come up with a solution, it seems.

Call me a nervous nelly, but it does seems a rather inadequate way of confronting what Vector predicts is an impending crisis.

Couldn't we at least show willing by banning the sale of household air-conditioners?