Brian Rudman: Just what we need - another transport body

From today's birth and deaths notices: "Cullen-Parker. The Hon. Michael and Hon. David are delighted to announce, as ministers of Finance and Transport, they have conceived a new miracle child to help solve Auckland's transport problems, the Auckland Passenger Rail Reference Group. Birth to be induced, 31 March 2006.

"News of the impending arrival is being greeted with much excitement and surprise by AUPRARG's many brothers and sisters, including ARTNL, ARTA, Ontrack, ARC, TPC, ATPAG, Transit NZ, Land Transport NZ and all the cousins at Toll, Connex and various territorial councils."

No doubt some tears were shed too, of despair, I suspect, rather than delight.

The ministers wants the new body to provide "a more formal mechanism for resolving differences" among the Auckland Regional Transport Authority, Ontrack, the government agency controlling the rail tracks, and Land Transport New Zealand, the government funding agency.

It's part of the pre-Christmas hurry-up package delivered to the regional council and the regional transport authority (ARTA) by the ministers demanding some short term action on the rail front. Their priority, say the ministers in a letter presented to yesterday's regional transport policy committee meeting, is "significant improvements in passenger rail services ... over the next three years." They say leave the long-term stuff until later. That includes electrification.

If, after six years in power, Dr Cullen is looking for some action on the rail front, then so would most Aucklanders. But is another body dreamed up in Wellington to referee the disputes of three earlier Wellington-created organisations going to help? We just want some new trains running on under-used rail corridors, fast-tracking of the bus corridors, and completion of crucial and long-delayed roading projects.

Given that all the orders on this subject - and much of the money - seems to comes out of Dr Cullen's office, maybe it's time to drop the pretence of diverse "independent" bodies making "independent" decisions on Auckland's transport future. Why doesn't the Government just bite the bullet and set up one all-encompassing regional transport authority (which ARTA was sold as), come to a deal with local politicians about who will fund what, and then let the new authority get on with it?

Prime Minister Helen Clark also had a few words to say about Auckland's transport infrastructure in yesterday's state of the nation speech. Nothing in the way of a solution, just breast-beating about Auckland not being able to realise its potential "if people and goods cannot move rapidly through it".

She seemed to be softening us up for road tolling, worrying that "high oil prices have reduced fuel consumption, and therefore reduced revenue from fuel tax" and that "pressure on construction capacity has been escalating costs."

But on the road front at least, it mightn't be quite as gloomy as the Prime Minister makes out.

A report by ARC analysts to yesterday's transport policy committee suggests there's very little correlation as far as Auckland motorists are concerned between fuel price and consumption. Between July 2004 and October 2005 anyway. Sure, there was a decline in volume sold between July-September last year when prices rose, but that proved to be a seasonal thing, not price related.

The boffins then got out their crystal ball and calculated what might happened when petrol prices really soared - up by 50 per cent to 200 per cent of today's prices.

Unsurprisingly, congestion on the roads fell as usage dropped and vehicle speeds - for those who could still afford to drive - improved by 3 per cent to 14 per cent in the morning peak. Another plus was that injury crashes and pollution levels dramatically declined.

The modelling also predicted passenger transport demand increasing by up to 21 per cent by the time fuel prices trebled.

We all know Peak Oil - the time when demand for petrol outstrips nature's ability to supply - is nigh. The only question is when. A US Department of Energy graph lists dates stretching from 2006 through Shell Oil's "2025 or later" to someone's optimistic "no visible peak."

Helen Clark says the Government will be "working closely with transport agencies, local government and Auckland stakeholders and communities to meet the goals we have set for major improvements [in Auckland land transport infrastructure] over the next decade".

Of course an alternative would be to keep consulting and forming committees and praying Peak Oil strikes sooner than later. With luck, road congestion would then cure itself.

It's a pity, though, that no one got round to electrifying the rail for all those who could no longer afford petrol.