Brian McCartan: Gloomy news obscures progress of humanity

Judging from the headlines, 2005 was a gloomy year indeed. The devastating earthquake in Kashmir, ongoing war in Iraq, civil war in Sudan, renewed famine in central Africa and the threat of a worldwide flu pandemic darkened the news.

But these headlines obscure a far brighter underlying trend: on average, people across the planet are living longer, healthier lives, with greater opportunity for education and political freedom than ever before.

We unavoidably view our world through news articles that break up an otherwise overwhelming stream of information into digestible bites.

As a result, we often "lose the forest for the trees" by focusing on sensational short-term stories that impact on relatively few people.

It is difficult to place these singular events in context, and it is all too easy to lose sight of more fundamental developments. If we step back from daily headlines and examine broader global trends in human progress, an encouraging picture for 2005 emerges.

Income: Worldwide incomes are at their highest levels in history and are rising. Since 1960, more than a billion people have pulled themselves out of the direst poverty. This trend caused the World Bank to conclude that "the past two decades have witnessed one of the most rapid reductions in poverty in human history".

This success has been propelled by China, which alone has lifted over 400 million out of poverty in the past 20 years.

Other countries, such as Bangladesh, have made substantial strides in poverty reduction, without China's high rates of economic growth, through progressive Government programmes focused on improving health care and education.

The rapid globalisation of the world economy and industrialisation of many formerly agricultural economies, which has unquestionably brought environmental loss and social upheaval, has also raised incomes for literally billions of people.

Health and education: Across the planet people are living on average seven years longer than they did in the 1970s, and the gap between life expectancies in the richest and poorest countries has closed by 10 years since 1960.

Childhood mortality, a key indicator for advances in health systems, has steadily declined worldwide. In the past decade, 1.2 billion people have gained access to clean drinking water.

Literacy has slowly risen in lower-income countries, now reaching 76 per cent.

Primary school enrolment has advanced steadily, with more than eight out of 10 youngsters now in school.

The devastating expansion of HIV/Aids has been a notable and troubling exception to these positive trends.

Political and civil rights: Half the world's population now lives in countries that have multi-party electoral systems that respect basic human rights - the highest level in history.

The breakup of the former Soviet Union in 1991 precipitated a move towards Western system democracies, not only within the borders of the former Soviet Union but also within former "client" states.

More than 80 countries in central Europe, East Asia, Latin America and parts of sub-Saharan Africa have all notched gains in political and civil rights, and more than 30 military dictatorships have been replaced by civilian Governments.

About two-thirds of the world's population now has a free or partly free press.

Armed conflict: While the 20th century was the bloodiest in human history, the number of armed conflicts has declined steadily from about 50 in 1990 to below 30 today - nearly the lowest level since the end of World War II.

The number of men and women in uniform and total world military spending have eased from Cold War peaks.

Catastrophic wars between major states that pervaded Europe and Asia until the end of World War II have largely been replaced by smaller-scale internal conflicts, primarily in lower-income countries.

Almost half the conflicts are on the African continent, including by far the most deadly war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The number of refugees and displaced persons hit by civil unrest worldwide peaked at more than 35 million in 1990 and has since declined to about 20-25 million. The decline in refugees directly reflects reduction in the number of armed conflicts.

However, progress towards a safer world, unlike progress in health, education and income, can be quickly reversed with the outbreak of a single major conflict. Recent brinkmanship between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan is the most chilling reminder of this danger.

Such a sweeping survey of the state of our species is doomed to overlook and oversimplify, masking the still troubling worldwide problems of poverty, strife and injustice.

Have we sacrificed our environment and quality of life in pursuit of higher incomes? Do our democracies sufficiently recognise minority interest or full expression of political freedoms?

We cannot shirk from addressing these issues and facing the deep divisions in our world.

The progress of the many has been mirrored by a retreat for more than a quarter of the world's population into isolation, poor health and extreme poverty.

People living in part of sub-saharan Africa and some countries of the former Soviet Union have actually seen their well-being decline over the past decade.

These global problems can be overwhelming and appear to defy our best intentions and efforts. Yet the unmistakable progress of the majority of humanity strikes a brighter note.

This progress should not make us complacent, but rather fuel optimism that the human industry and creativity that have achieved suchtremendous progress can be further tapped to tackle our unmet challenges, allowing us to begin the New Year with confidence and resolve.

* Brian McCartan is director of the Global Trends Project, a Seattle-based non-profit research group.