People of my vintage are much more politically sensitive than younger generations because, for so long, politics intruded into our lives. They still do, but not nearly to the same extent as in the past.
My earliest recollection is 1949 when National first won office. I had just turned 10 and the memory remains vivid. That's because of the shock of watching my distraught father on Sunday morning, listening to outgoing Labour Prime Minister Peter Fraser conceding defeat on the radio. In Lower Hutt in those days the Labour Party was akin to a religion and it was as if the world had come to an end.
I can remember every election since. Those in 1951 and 1981 left a bitter legacy for many years. But, otherwise, elections have all the trappings of a major sporting event which for a month dominate all discussion and news media.
They provide great spectator fun, but not for the participants. As a party leader I was a player in the 1984 election and know just how unbelievably gruelling the process is.
So spare a thought for the thousands of candidates and party workers who have toiled so hard over the past few months, especially given that next Sunday most of them will be sunk in the disappointment of defeat.
There's a cynical widespread view that the result doesn't matter because with Labour and National it's a Tweedledum-Tweedledee affair. That's certainly been the case for most of the past 70 years.
But thanks to its leader, this time National is offering a clear change of direction with two key platforms: lower taxes and an end to Maori favouritism. Voters attracted by that should ensure that at least one of their household, if like-minded, gives a party vote to Act, failing which they will not see a change of government. Similarly, voters content with Labour should do the same with the Greens.
New Zealand First brings to the table two clear platforms: a better deal for old folk and a more selective immigration policy. Voters who consider these are important issues should give their party vote to New Zealand First and if in Tauranga, both votes to Winston and his party.
Maori voters face a conundrum given the option of the Maori Party. I've already expressed my strong reservations about a racially based party. The idiotic utterances by the Maori Party leadership on Zimbabwe, and then Donna Awatere Huata, should make Maori voters think deeply about this representation.
The polls suggest no other minor party will be a player.
Minor parties count because it is they who will decide the next government. Their decision will hinge on acceptance of at least some of their policies, ensuring this election is not the private plaything of Labour and National.
I have repeatedly said that despite all of the noise on dozens of different issues which are thrown up during election campaigns, history shows that ultimately it's hip-pocket politics which determines the outcome.
That is why there might be a change of government, because only National has offered anything new in that respect. The fuss over the Exclusive Brethren leaflets aside, it has had a good campaign aided by the cleverest political billboard advertising I've ever seen.
With the exception of the student loan bribe, Labour has run a drab campaign, essentially arguing that it's been a good government so don't rock the boat. So, too, with the minor parties which have seemingly just gone through the motions.
As always, it's been fun but I suspect the real excitement starts on Monday week when the coalition haggling begins.
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
<EM>Bob Jones:</EM> National has dared to be different this election
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