Audrey Young: Only martyrdom can rescue MP from being left out in the cold

John Tamihere may regret bowing so hastily before the Labour caucus to be forgiven his indiscretions and welcomed back.

At the time, it seemed Labour was stuck with him, not because it particularly wanted him but because it wanted disunity less. Things look a little different in the wake of the Marae DigiPoll survey at the weekend that puts Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples streets ahead of Mr Tamihere in the electorate of Tamaki Makaurau.

Even within the large margin of error, that indicates Mr Tamihere is in deep trouble. But now he is stuck with Labour.

And because of the crisis over his interview with Investigate magazine, the party's leadership may not be highly motivated to commit extra resources into keeping him.

The quickest prospect of turning voters his way would be for Mr Tamihere to acquire martyrdom.

That might have been possible were he to have seen out his "stress leave", as Prime Minister Helen Clark wanted, emphasising the isolation from the party and contriving an exit as a "bloke" who had offended the "politically correct" party.

Dr Sharples and the Maori Party were deliberately quiet about Mr Tamihere lest they encourage martyrdom. Even then, it might not have worked: a martyred Mr Tamihere might not overcome the underlying force behind the poll results, which is the foreshore and seabed issue.

Mr Tamihere was the strongest voice among Labour's Maori MPs for the foreshore and seabed legislation. That is why he is being punished.

Apart from Tariana Turia, who quit the party, Nanaia Mahuta was perceived as the strongest opponent (although she actually voted for it), which explains why she is one of the few Labour MPs doing well against the Maori Party.

Labour had hoped that by passing the legislation before Christmas, the tide would have well and truly gone out on the issue by the election. But the fact that most of its Maori MPs (and their Pakeha colleagues) sought the safety net of a winnable list place suggests they were not confident the tide had turned back.

Only two Maori MPs lack the protection of a list place - Nanaia Mahuta and John Tamihere. Only their electorates can save them. Mr Tamihere will be able to make more of that in the campaign, especially if Dr Sharples gets a top billing on the Maori Party list. But Mr Tamihere's 3 per cent rating as preferred Prime Minister in last night's One News Colmar Brunton poll reflects the view of general voters and will not save him from a disgruntled Maori electorate. Labour president Mike Williams wailed about the Marae poll and tried to undermine the polling company's credibility.

Marae passed on the pollster's cautionary warning about the electorate sample being so small that the results should be seen as "indicative only".

Incredibly, Mr Williams cited as contrary evidence to the Marae poll the 100 per cent support Mr Tamihere received last Monday night at a meeting in Mangere - a Labour Party meeting.

He referred to a Marae DigiPoll survey published shortly before the 1999 election which suggested New Zealand First's Tutekawa Wyllie was well ahead of Labour's new candidate, Mahara Okeroa. Mr Okeroa won - by 4522 votes.

Mr Williams fails to admit that the poll suggesting Mr Okeroa was not a shoo-in fuelled an injection of party resources in a bid to secure Te Tai Tonga for Labour, an effort that no doubt helped him win it. Will the party do the same for Mr Tamihere?