Audrey Young: Never underestimate the power of appeal

Don Brash is still the most dangerous man to Labour because no one quite understands his mysterious power of appeal.

Labour finished the year fairly smug in the belief that its political management and art of ridicule had got the better of Dr Brash's seismic rise to popularity on the back of last year's Orewa speech.

Labour would be advised to stay nervous.

It underestimated Dr Brash and it miscalculated the voting public.

There have been plenty of theories about why Dr Brash succeeded last year in a field that both Bill English and Winston Peters had thoroughly worked over.

One is that Dr Brash had accumulated latent respectability over 14 years as Reserve Bank Governor, that when he gave voice to concern and resentment privately harboured by other "respectable" people the result was an instant attraction.

The Orewa phenomenon was not a single speech but a process that began well before and only became a recognisable momentum of public opinion well after the tut-tutting editorials and pro-forma denouncements.

The process thus far this year has been much the same, involving preparation by Dr Brash's advisers and a media strategy this time to deflate high expectations of a quick king hit.

Orewa II on welfare has wide scope to stoke resentment, particularly of those who do work about those who don't.

There is also a potential, as Dr Brash showed to an audience at Ratana yesterday, to inject an Orewa I dimension into any other speech, highlighting the number of Maori dependent on benefits.

And he always has one more option between now and the election later this year - to rework the theme of Orewa I.

If it has worked once, it could work again.