Audrey Young: A look into a political crystal ball

The cut and thrust of parliamentary debate resumes next Tuesday when MPs return to the House. Political editor Audrey Young polishes up her crystal ball to make some predictions about where their fortunes will lie in three years

Labour

Labour's line-up in Parliament will be vastly different to the one we will see next Tuesday.

There is a remote possibility that Helen Clark could be gone, having had greatness thrust upon her in the way of an international post. Despite impressions, she has never ruled it out. Even recently, when asked about her availability for the post of United Nations Secretary-General, she said it was her "intention" to lead Labour into a fourth term. "Intentions" are a valuable commodity for politicians who don't want to mislead.

The United States does not favour Clark, however, and it is deemed to be Asia's turn next. But if there were a deadlock and someone like Tony Blair, for example, convinced the United States that Clark was the best compromise candidate, it might be possible.

The good money, however, is on her staying on to fight a fourth term, letting the rejuvenation take place in the lower ranks, then stepping down after the next election.

Michael Cullen - without peer in Parliament in terms of sharpness in the debating chamber - is Deputy Prime Minister, deputy Labour leader, Leader of the House and Finance Minister.
He won't have any of his present jobs come the end of this parliamentary term. He will be in the Speaker's chair, realising the last of his parliamentary ambitions.

Speaker Margaret Wilson, who has earned the respect of the House as a firm, fair and flexible Speaker, is a list MP and will have moved on to some stimulating job suited to her talents, back in the law world, perhaps even to the bench.

After a well-managed but intense internal tussle between Phil Goff and Trevor Mallard, Goff will become deputy leader and Mallard will become finance minister. An alternative is Mallard becoming deputy leader and Goff getting finance, but that is less likely.

The election for deputy will be a proxy contest for Labour's next leader in the expectation that Clark will step down next term. Mallard would be more acceptable to the caucus but it will discover that Goff would be more acceptable to the voter.

The caucus will also have realised by then that despite being Labour's "thinker," Education Minister Steve Maharey does not have what it takes to be leader. He will be on his way out to a new job to accommodate his talents, perhaps a professorship somewhere.

Shane Jones will be Maori Affairs Minister and encumbent Parekura Horomia will have signalled his intention to stand down next election because of health problems.

Jones has greater ambitions than solely the Maori Affairs portfolio but he will need an apprenticeship to keep his ambitions in check.

Marian Hobbs will have signalled her intention to retire to make way in Wellington Central for younger blood, Clark adviser Grant Robertson.

Dianne Yates and Russell Fairbrother will have moved on, being members of that unpopular Labour club, the over-60s who have lost their electorate seats.

National

Labour's domination of the House for the past nine years will be challenged this term by National as its main players use the House more as a platform for their own advancement in the inevitable changes ahead.

Leader Don Brash will try but fail to make any impact in the House. Bill English, John Key, Simon Power and Judith Collins will return to the House this year on political Viagra.

Brash's stated "intention" to lead National into the next election will change. He will step down in year two or three when he realises that, first, the media won't let the leadership issue go away and, second, that that will make him a liability to National's next campaign.

John Key will become leader. English will refuse to be part of a peaceful compromise to become Key's deputy but finance spokesman instead. He will also be leader-in-waiting if Key fails the grand task when he is cut loose from his finance specialty.

Gerry Brownlee will resign as deputy. Collins will become Key's deputy.

Power may contest the deputy's job but Collins' gender and gutsiness will prevail. Brownlee will keep his role as shadow leader of the House.

Lockwood Smith will be challenged if he doesn't retire. List MP Clem Simich will retire.

List MP Richard Worth may tempted back to the law now that Chris Finlayson has been earmarked for Attorney-General.

New Zealand First

In terms of House performance, leader Winston Peters is the only MP that comes close to Cullen's class, although he is some distance away, literally.

Peters' difficulty this term will be scheduling time to get to the House, being Foreign Minister. His MPs won't miss him terribly because they will get the platforms.

By the time Peters makes public the emails he says will end Don Brash's leadership, Brash's leadership will have already ended.

If he had had the goods, he would have disclosed the emails in the last week of the election campaign rather than creating a storm about Bob Clarkson's testicles.

Peters will announce his intention to stand as a list-only candidate for the 2008 election rather than taking on Tauranga again.

He will stand willing and able to serve his country as foreign minister under any Government next term, but his party won't make the 5 per cent threshold.

Deputy leader Peter Brown will announce his retirement from politics allowing fresh blood and next on the list Susan Baragwanath into Parliament.

After a very close contest between Brian Donnelly and Ron Mark, Donnelly will get the deputy leadership and Mark will get the Tauranga nomination - but National will win it again. 

The rest

United Future leader Peter Dunne will continue his dream run in politics and stand willing and able to serve his country as revenue minister again in the next Government - or as foreign affairs minister, with Peters' demise.

Act leader Rodney Hide will become more sophisticated and more selective with his scandals. His goal will be to retain Epsom - and he will, but that means suppressing the hooligan in him.

His second goal will be to expand Act's representation.

His third goal will to befriend the Maori Party as much as he can in order to improve the prospects of it as a coalition partner for the centre-right - and his own prospects of being part of a government.

Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia will decide not to contest the 2008 election. Pita Sharples will lead the party into the next election with Hone Harawira as co-leader.

Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will be joined as co-leader by activist Russel Norman.