Election: Veteran versus 'amateur'

With the election date set, party billboards take on a new relevance. Picture / Richard Robinson

Prime Minister Helen Clark will fight for her political survival and a place in history by trying to convince the country that National's Don Brash would deliver amateur Government and radical change.

Either way, the election on September 17 will deliver a historic result: no Labour Prime Minister has been elected for a third term, as Helen Clark wants to be, and no MP has become Prime Minister after just three years, as Dr Brash wants to be.

Helen Clark says the campaign will be about policy, not personality.

"This campaign is going to test leadership, credibility and values," she said yesterday, announcing the date at her post-Cabinet press conference.

"Leading a Government is not a game for amateurs.

"In my judgment, few New Zealanders are looking for radical policy change this election, yet radical change is what is on offer from the Opposition this election."

Helen Clark said a National government would mark a return to the days of asset sales, big borrowing, spending cuts, growing poverty, "and the deeply divided society of the 1990s".

She also confirmed Labour's intention of making foreign policy direction a major campaign issue, accusing Dr Brash of being "slippery" on the issue of Iraq and likely to shift New Zealand away from an independent foreign policy.

Dr Brash welcomed the poll date, saying this election was about tackling the issue of mainstream New Zealand "after six years of Labour's PC social engineering".

But despite expectations that National would release its much-awaited tax policy soon after the election date was announced, voters will have to wait until mid-August.

Dr Brash said voters would get at least four weeks to assess the package.

Helen Clark predicted that National's tax cuts would be "a lemon".

Just eight weeks out from the election, Labour trails National by about four points in polls, a major handicap given that, under the MMP system, major parties lose support rather than gain it in campaigns.

Labour will today begin announcing new policies it hopes will revitalise its flagging support. First up is a new tertiary student policy.

The Prime Minister continued Labour's attack on National's foreign policy, saying whether National committed troops to Iraq was not just a historical matter, given that a conservative Government in Australia had recently committed more troops.

But Dr Brash last night clarified National's position, saying he could not see any circumstances in which National or Labour would commit combat troops to Iraq.

"But you can never say absolutely never."

He said if Helen Clark had been asked as Leader of the Opposition in 1999 whether she would commit New Zealand combat troops to Afghanistan to fight alongside the Americans, "I feel fairly confident she would have said no".

"But she not only committed them, they are still there."

Parliament resumes today for another three weeks. Labour will launch its campaign on August 21. New Zealand First will open its campaign this weekend in Takapuna.

Asked if she would stand down as party leader if she lost the election, Helen Clark said: "I have no Plan B. Plan A is to successfully lead Labour to a third term."

FIVE THINGS THAT WILL DEFINE THIS ELECTION

The leaders

* Will Helen Clark, with 24 years' experience as an MP, outperform Don Brash, with just three, or will her attacks on his trustworthiness rebound?

The issues

* Tax cuts, foreign policy and education so far. Watch for Labour's third pledge card on August 21.

The messages

* Subtle and sophisticated will get Labour nowhere if it is to answer National's bold billboards.

The unpredictable

* Remember Corngate, and the Worm in 2002 that threw the polls? This time, who knows.

The Peters factor

* The party that wins on the night may not be the winner in the end.

- additional reporting: Kevin Taylor