KEY POINTS:
The almost certain political grab for power after the upcoming general election will dent business even more than the announcement of the election date, says the Motor Industry Association.
Chief executive Perry Kerr expects new-vehicle sales to slow once Prime Minister Helen Clark confirms polling day, likely to be in November.
"What we have seen historically in New Zealand is that everybody sits on their hands leading up to the general election and then waits for the outcome," said Kerr.
"But if there turns out to be protracted negotiations between the parties about who is going into coalitions, everybody will wait for the outcome of that. So potentially we could see the new-vehicle market slow somewhat over the next few months."
New car and commercial sales last month were down 15.7 per cent, the biggest seasonal slump since the 1990s.
"I think the economy has finally caught up with the new-vehicle industry," he said.
"But if you look at the figures, June and July are always historically down _ it's the middle of winter, after all."
New-car sales in July totalled 5429 units against 6382 for the same month last year.
The 2059 new commercials were down on the 2497 in July 2007.
Kerr expects sales in August to be slow, too. "But I don't think we'll have as big a drop in August as we had last month," he said.
"It's certainly been a roller-coaster winter so far. There were signs of a slowdown in new vehicle sales in May, then June bounced back strongly, followed by a July which has reflected most of the recent negative economic data."
So far this year, new-car sales are running neck-and-neck with last year's numbers and new commercials are up by more than 4 per cent. But Kerr expects overall 2008 sales to finish down on last year's 102,000 total.
"I don't think we'll have as good a year as last year. We are just still ahead of last year at the moment, but because of the dip in July and the expected slowing with the elections, we are likely to be slightly under last year's figures.
"But considering where we have come from, the new-vehicle market is holding up really well. Go back six years or so and new vehicle sales in this country were around 80,000 a year.
"Now we're selling roughly around 400 more cars and commercials a week than we were back then."
Sales for the first seven months of 2008 totalled 58,754 units, comprising 43,442 cars and 15,312 commercials.
Toyota continued to extend its lead with overall sales of 11,720 vehicles and a 19.95 per cent share of the market against Ford's 6669 (11.35) and Holden's 5994 (10.20). Fourth on the top 10 ladder was Mazda, with 4275 sales and a 7.2 per cent slice, followed by Mitsubishi (4058 and 6.91), Nissan (3926 and 6.68), Suzuki (3557 and 6.05), Honda (3459 and 5.89), Hyundai (2933 and 4.99) and Volkswagen (1374 and 2.34).
Audi and BMW continue to fight for luxury dominance, with Audi at the end of July recording 704 sales for the year against BMW's 653. The Toyota Corolla maintained the lead over Holden Commodore as the country's top selling car model.
Sales of used imports in July fell nearly 37 per cent.
