Election race in their sights

Polling day is no more than eight months away and the informal election campaign starts in earnest today when Parliament reopens.

The Herald examines the state of the parties:

LABOUR

Has picked up where it left off at the end of last year by keeping its eye on the ball over summer and giving National much less of a free run post-Orewa by bringing back Parliament much earlier than usual. Will be breathing somewhat easier after today's poll, which shows limited spin-off for National from Don Brash's attack on welfare dependency. Although Labour's support has slipped markedly compared with the last Herald-DigiPoll survey, the party's rating is still bang on the 45 per cent average Labour recorded in opinion polls conducted during December. Ominously for National, Labour starts election year with the same hefty 10 percentage point margin it enjoyed over its main rival at the beginning of 2002.

NATIONAL

Will have hoped for more of a rebound in today's poll. Like Labour, National is also registering its December average - of 35 per cent, in its case. There will be disappointment Dr Brash's push for tax cuts and welfare reform does not seem to have swayed his target audience of Labour-leaning middle-income voters. However, party strategists have stressed National's follow-up to Orewa is as crucial in creating the perception National is on a roll as that speech itself. The first test comes in Parliament today, with the pressure on Dr Brash to better Helen Clark as she outlines Labour's vision for election year and beyond.

NZ FIRST

Likely to hold the whip hand over National when it comes to post-election coalition talks as National has few options when it comes to partners. But Labour has plenty. And Labour must currently be favoured to win in September. Winston Peters will have a struggle convincing wary Labour it should talk to him ahead of United Future or the Greens. His hopes of doing so rest on a scenario which leaves Labour with the unhappy choice of governing with NZ First alone or governing with an unstable combination of both United Future and the Greens. However, given NZ First has a big chunk of conservative support, Mr Peters cannot afford to get too close to Labour beforehand.

ACT

Survival now all down to Rodney Hide duplicating Richard Prebble's ability to drag Act's ratings up during the election campaign proper. But is Mr Hide on a par with his predecessor? His state of the nation speech last month fizzled. Hide is trying to soften Act's austere image. But there is still no clear re-definition of the party's brand. His description of Act as the "workers' party" may be a leap too far. Meanwhile, Dr Brash's tough talk on welfare has further blurred distinctions between the two centre-right parties to Act's disadvantage.

GREENS

No room for complacency despite hitting nearly 7 per cent in today's poll. Having claimed victory on GM, the party is in desperate need of a fresh issue which is seriously bugging voters. Jeanette Fitzsimons' focus on the coming oil shortage isn't it. The Greens are also vulnerable to votes drifting to the new Maori Party. However, the absence of other competitors on Labour's left combined with the Greens' rock-solid promise to back Labour next time makes them a safe choice for those protesting Labour's occasional forays to the right.

UNITED FUTURE

Has fulfilled its guarantee of stable minority Government - perhaps to a fault. Needs to toughen up - and early indications suggest it will. However, United Future's hopes of doing as well as it did in 2002 rest on National performing as poorly. And that looks highly unlikely.

PROGRESSIVES

Is this Matt Robson's swansong? The Progressives' two MPs look destined to become one despite Jim Anderton's bid to spark a revival late last year with his surprise call for a cut in company tax. Beyond the walls of Fortress Wigram, are voters still listening?

MAORI PARTY

Tariana Turia has the one weapon Labour cannot neutralise - the martyr factor.
The biggest threat to the Maori Party comes from within.
Only a bout of debilitating infighting or blunders by Mrs Turia's less politically seasoned colleagues will stop the party winning or running Labour very close in most of the Maori seats.