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The electoral axe is hanging over Labour with the party set to lose up to half its current caucus after the election.
Depending on who wins their seat, the axe could swing as high as senior ministers Andrew Little and David Parker.
Meanwhile, dozens of new faces are set to enter Parliament, including an ecologist of Vietnamese and Pākehā heritage (Green Party candidate Lan Pham), a Chinese Harvard graduate and chartered accountant (National candidate Nancy Lu), and a former spokeswoman for Hobson’s Pledge (New Zealand First candidate Casey Costello).
The next class of MPs will be determined by each party’s share of the party vote, as well as who wins each electorate.
The Herald Poll of Polls has National on 35.8 per cent, Labour on 26.8 per cent, the Greens on 12.3 per cent, Act on 10.6 per cent, New Zealand First on 5.7 per cent, and Te Pāti Māori on 2.8 per cent.
On those numbers, Labour would win 34 seats, which would mean losing nearly half of its current caucus of 64 MPs, but with maybe one or two new MPs if they win their electorate seats.
Several MPs ranked below number 34 on the list are likely to return to Parliament by winning electorates. These include Phil Twyford (Te Atatū), Michael Wood (Mt Roskill), Helen White (Mt Albert), Arena Williams (Manurewa), Ingrid Leary (Taieri), Lemauga Lydia Sosene (Māngere), and potentially Ibrahim Omer (Wellington Central) and Rachel Boyack (Nelson). There are also four MPs who are running electorate-only: Nanaia Mahuta (Hauraki-Waikato), Cushla Tangaere-Manuel (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti), Soraya Peke Mason (Te Tai Hauāuru), and Greg O’Connor (Ōhāriu).
The ones who are returned to Parliament as electorate MPs would push out others who are higher on the list.
This could include MPs who fall short in their electorate contests, such as ministers Jo Luxton (Rangitata), Ginny Anderson (Hutt South), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakiekie) and Willow-Jean Prime (Northland), and current MPs including Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour), Shanan Halbert (Northcote) and Camilla Belich (Epsom). It might also mean list-only candidates miss out, including current MP Naisi Chen, ministers David Parker, Andrew Little, Willie Jackson and Ayesha Verrall, and Speaker Adrian Rurawhe.
New MPs for Labour would come from its new candidates who win their seats. They potentially include former Wellington City councillor Fleur Fitzsimons (Rongotai) and television producer Reuben Davidson (Christchurch East). Georgie Dansey is the highest-ranked new candidate at number 31, though she might struggle to become an MP at that ranking, given she may not keep Hamilton East for Labour (currently held by retiring MP Jamie Strange).
National, on current polling, would have 46 MPs, including several new faces who are high enough on the list to be virtually assured of entering Parliament, regardless of whether they win an electorate.
They include accountant Nancy Lu (list), part-time political staffer and part-time farmer Suze Redmayne (Rangitīkei), marketing professional Katie Nimon (Napier), ex-TVNZ reporter Catherine Wedd (Tukituki), Emma Chatterton (Remutaka), a project leader for social impact firm ImpactLab, which was founded by Sir Bill English, and potential Attorney-General James Christmas (list).
New candidates predicted to win their electorates include Carl Bates (Whanganui), who co-founded economic consultancy firm Sidar, farmer Miles Anderson (Waitaki), former Auckland councillor Cameron Brewer (Upper Harbour) and medical researcher Hamish Campbell (Ilam).
The Greens would have 16 seats, which would see several new faces in Parliament including ecologist Lan Pham, environmental activist and musician Steve Abel, Ngātiwai Trust Board chief executive Hūhana Lyndon, former Auckland mayoral candidate Fa’anānā Efeso Collins, and, at number 15 on the list, former Wellington mayor Celia Wade-Brown.
Te Pāti Māori at 2.8 per cent would win four seats, which would propel author and expert in maramataka (the Māori lunar calendar) Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke to Parliament at just 20 years of age. She has been in the headlines during the campaign for allegations of intimidating behaviour towards her.
Act would have 13 seats and new MPs would include former corporate healthcare adviser Todd Stephenson, former Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard, former business owner and registered evacuation consultant Laura Trusk, builder Cameron Luxton, lawyer Antonia Modkova, and liquor retail businessman Himanshu Parmar. Former National MP Parmjeet Parmar would return, having switched parties.
New Zealand First would have seven seats. New MPs would include former spokeswoman for Hobson’s Pledge Casey Costello, Marlborough councillor Jamie Arbuckle, and former Wellington Mayor Andy Foster.
Next on the list, if its party vote nudges higher, would be life coach Tanya Unkovich, whose apparent association with an anti-vax conspiracy theory group has been questioned, though this has been dismissed by party leader Winston Peters.
The Herald has seen a screenshot that appears to show Unkovich, in February 2022, joining the Telegram channel nuremberg.nz, which is dedicated to “identifying New Zealand politicians, bureaucrats, mainstream media and academic personalities who must face military tribunals under international law for crimes against humanity”.
She has not responded to a request for comment.
Asked about her as a candidate, Peters said: “This is a woman whose grandmother was murdered by the Nazis, her uncle and family were murdered by the Nazis. And you guys are saying she’s a Nazi.”
He then walked away from further questions from reporters.
Lincoln Tan specialises in covering stories around diversity and immigration. He’s been a journalist at the Herald since 2006.
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery and is a former deputy political editor.
The 36-year-old died on December 19.