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Welcome to the Politics Briefing. Labour has received the best news it is likely to get in themiddle of a cost-of-living crisis, in the middle of the election campaign: New Zealand is not only out of recession, it was never in it. According to the latest GDP statistics, economic growth was 0.9 per cent in the last quarter, outperforming predictions and allowing Grant Robertson to suggest the economy had turned a corner.
National’s Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have been devastating in their attacks on Labour over the recession status, and over the government debt - that kept people in jobs during the Covid response and kept unemployment low, 3.6 per cent. People still feel like there is a recession, Willis said, and this morning National released what it calls a 100-point plan to rebuild the economy.
Robertson called the new growth figures “a victory for the economy”. But it may be only a technical victory because, with voting beginning soon, there isn’t much time left to close the gap. And it is not all good news, with some economists suggesting the Reserve Bank may have to consider another lift in the OCR this year - though more likely November rather than the next OCR on October 4 - two days after voting starts. See Liam Dann’s comment piece.
Revise, reverse, release
Act Party leader David Seymour. Photo / File
Act leader David Seymour released his revised fiscal plan after the Pre-election fiscal update (Prefu) showed the accounts had deteriorated badly since May. His fiscal plan had previously set out a plan with only two rates of income tax. That has been revised to three rates. He has also added $1 billion revenue in cigarette tax over four years by reversing the Very Low Nicotine Content Rules which slash the amount of nicotine in cigarettes. There was no mention of the policy or the revenue in the previous plan.
At least Seymour released a plan and then revised it. We are still waiting for National and Labour to release theirs, 10 days out from the start of voting.
Polling fillips
There was a personal fillip for Prime Minister Chris Hipkins as well yesterday. He was rated the most trusted political leader in the 1 News-Verian poll, 28 per cent to Christopher Luxon’s 22 per cent, David Seymour 12 per cent, Winston Peters 10 per cent, James Shaw 4 per cent, Marama Davidson 3 per cent, Rawiri Waititi 2 per cent and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 1 per cent (18 per cent undecided).
Another poll puts Labour’s candidate in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, former Ngati Porou East Coast Rugby chief executive Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, eight points ahead of MP Meka Whaitiri, who defected from Labour to the Māori Party. But with a whopping 29 per cent undecided, it is still wide open. The poll was conducted by Curia for Whakaata Māori television.
On the trail
Hipkins looked very chipper on the campaign in Hawke’s Bay where he promised a $1 billion hospital for the region and had a happy visit to the Wattie’s factory. Adam Pearse will be reporting on his visit today to Wairarapa with Kieran McAnulty.
Christopher Luxon was in the deep South with Invercargill MP Penny Simmonds and education spokeswoman Erica Stanford, trying to make it easier for international students to return to New Zealand. He is in Auckland today. I’ve included below the profile I did in August on Simmonds, who is tipped for a ministerial role in a National government.
Peters set the tone
NZ First leader Winston Peters, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson and Act leader David Seymour during the Newshub Powerbrokers debate. Photo / Newshub Nation, Warner Bros. Discovery
New Zealand First leader Winston set the tone in last night’s pacy Newshub Nation’s Powerbroker’s debate. He was in a frivolous mood and it ended up being highly entertaining, if not particularly deep. At least the Greens’ Marama Davidson, Te Pati Māori’s Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Peters had fun. It was 45 minutes of amusing one-liners. David Seymour, however, remained deadly serious throughout. He stated, not for the first time, that he would work with Peters if the numbers required it.
Quote unquote
“I’m beginning to pity Christopher Luxon in the days after the election” - Newshub Nation election debate co-host Rebecca Wright after hearing David Seymour and Winston Peters discuss whether they could work together.
Micro quiz
The red seat of Mt Albert has only ever been held by Labour - including three MPs who became Labour leader: Helen Clark, David Shearer and Jacinda Ardern. Which National candidate who stood there and lost went on to lead the National Party? (See answer below).
Brickbat
Greg O’Connor, Labour MP for Ōhāriu, who told voters at a local candidates meeting that National rival Nicola Willis was likely to be the next Minister of Finance. The general rule in politics, Greg, is that you don’t concede until election night.
Bouquet
To TV1 senior reporter Benedict Collins, who found someone to welcome the prospect of fresh fruit and frozen vegetables losing 15 per cent GST - a couple of workers at the Wattie’s factory. Makes a change from an economist’s opinion.
Quiz answer: Rob Muldoon in 1954 in his first run at Parliament.
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.
