Jacinda Ardern is holding her last scheduled Cabinet meeting tomorrow in the term of this Government.
If and when she comes to choose the next Cabinet, she has four big questions.
The first will be Minister of Health, the second Minister of Foreign Affairs, the third what to do about Phil Twyford and then which backbench MPs to bring into the ministry.
The health question is crucial as are all front-facing Covid portfolios.
Her aim would be to maintain as much stability as possible and where changes had to be made to ensure it was a proven minister.
Ardern's dilemma is down to Chris Hipkins.
Few would dispute he has done an outstanding job in Health after being thrown into the job when David Clark resigned in early July, getting to grips quickly with detail and getting a better performance out of the Ministry of Health.
But it is an open secret that his first love is Education and that if he had to make a choice, he would go for Education.
Health next term will require a strong and competent minister to see through the reforms in the Simpson review.
It is possible that Ardern insists that Hipkins stay in Health for the sake of continuity. It is her prerogative. But given he is one of her top ministers, his view is likely to count for a lot.
Although he has been able to do both portfolios competently under Covid conditions, keeping him in both Health and Education is not an option.
Giving one person two of the biggest jobs would suggest that there was not enough talent in the Cabinet - and there isn't an over-supply.
Ardern's other options would most likely be Megan Woods and David Parker with Parker the more likely to get it. He is a details person, has a huge capacity for work, and is a good communicator, if occasionally irascible.
Megan Woods is close to Ardern and has become a dependable trouble-shooter. She could get Transport which would be a critical portfolio in getting the massive infrastructure projects underway.
If Parker got Health, he would also need to hold on to Environment because he is uniquely placed to see through complex RMA reforms.
Assuming that Winston Peters' New Zealand First Party does not form part of a Labour-led government after the election, the coveted job of Foreign Minister would be vacant.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson is a former diplomat and would probably jump at it in another era. But not in the time of Covid.
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The two main contenders would be former Labour leader Andrew Little and current Trade Minister David Parker.
Little would be better placed to get it and Phil Goff, a former Labour leader, showed in the Clark Government that Justice and Foreign Affairs could both be managed.
Little would be bound to keep Treaty Negotiations because some of the difficult settlements are at a crucial stage.
One of the most vexing issues for a second-term Ardern Cabinet would be what to do about Phil Twyford, currently ranked No 5 in the Cabinet.
The two choices are either to demote him down the Cabinet rankings and give him something unimportant or to leave him out altogether because the very name Phil Twyford has become synonymous with non-delivery.
There may be many factors why light rail to the airport and Kiwibuild have failed to fly but there is only one reason in the public's mind.
Leaving Twyford out altogether would be the most simple solution - and would please those caucus colleagues who want more ministerial posts available to them.
One controversial former minister, David Clark, is certain to be reappointed a minister and another, Meka Whaitiri, is also a possibility. Keeping a third controversial minister would be more difficult for Ardern to justify politically.
Revenue Minister Stuart Nash is seen to have been a well performing minister this year in responding to Covid and could expect some bigger responsibilities in a second term - but building on his experience with small business.
The newcomers to ministerial portfolios would likely be likely be Labour's chief whip and Mt Roskill MP Michael Wood, Kieran McAnulty, a Wairarapa-based list MP, and Kiritapu Allen, a Whakatane-based list MP.
McAnulty and Allen are seen as potential associate ministers in primary industries.
Tauranga-based list MP and former school principal Jan Tinetti is also considered a possible contender. The Cabinet usually numbers 20 members and in this term, Labour's coalition partner, New Zealand First, had four places.
If Labour formed a majority Government it could still have Green Party MP as ministers outside Cabinet under a confidence and supply agreement - and that would leave six vacancies in the Cabinet for Labour – the four New Zealand First places, Iain Lees-Galloway position and Phil Twyford's.
But if it formed a coalition government with the Greens, there would almost certainly be several Greens in the Cabinet, including the two co-leaders, James Shaw and Marama Davidson.
Just how many would depend on how many MPs were elected and how many it needed to function as a parliamentary party with non-executive members.
If it had four MPs as ministers, Jan Logie would possibly be a more likely choice than Julie-Anne Genter. But in the end, it would be the Green Party's decision on who to put forward, not Ardern's.
Labour has some high-flying candidates and certainties for election who have both been involved in the Covid response professionally and may well be given posts such as under-secretary immediately in health and finance with a view to promotion during a mid-term reshuffle: Ayesha Verrall, a doctor specialising in infectious diseases, a list candidate; and Barbara Edmonds, a lawyer specialising in tax law, standing in Mana.
The variables in making cabinets are immense, but with the assumption that Ardern could be forming a Labour-Greens government, this is one scenario with new portfolios in bold:
Jacinda Ardern – Prime Minister
Kelvin Davis – Corrections, Maori Crown Relations,
Grant Robertson – Finance, Infrastructure, Sport, Racing
Megan Woods – Transport, Managed Isolation, Energy, Defence
Chris Hipkins – Education, State Services
Andrew Little – Foreign Affairs, Justice, Treaty Negotiations
Carmel Sepuloni – Social Development, ACC
David Parker –Health, Environment, Attorney-General
Nanaia Mahuta – Maori Development, Local Government, Police
Stuart Nash – Revenue, Small Business, Economic Development, Tourism
Jenny Salesa – Building and Construction
Damien O'Connor – Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries , Trade
Kris Faafoi – Immigration, Housing, Broadcasting and Communications
Peeni Henare – Civil Defence, Whanau Ora,
Willie Jackson – Employment, Internal Affairs
Poto Williams - Children
Michael Wood – Workplace Relations
James Shaw - Climate Change
Marama Davidson – Associate Housing, Associate Health.
Eugenie Sage - Conservation
Outside cabinet
Aupito William Sio – Pacific Peoples
David Clark – Commerce, Consumer Affairs, SOEs
Meka Whaitiri - Customs
Kiritapu Allen - Associate Forestry and Associate Fisheries
Kieran McAnulty – Associate Agriculture
Under-secretary
Barbara Edmonds
Ayesha Verrall
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