Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Greens leader James Shaw and Finance Minister Grant Robertson walk to the house during Budget 2020 delivery day. Photo / Getty Imaes
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Greens leader James Shaw and Finance Minister Grant Robertson walk to the house during Budget 2020 delivery day. Photo / Getty Imaes
It is not done these days to talk about parties "winning" elections because so far under MMP, no single party has yet had enough votes to govern alone.
On current polling, Labour looks in pole position to form the next Government, but governing parties have also been known to fallfrom great heights during election campaigns.
The result may be evident on election night.
But Governments are mostly formed in negotiations after the election, and not necessarily between like-minded parties.
National leader Judith Collins and Labour leader and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photos / Mark Mitchell
The Greens were shut out of Government with Labour in 1999, 2002 and 2005 despite being more closely aligned with them than United Future or New Zealand First.
On three occasions, 1996, 2005 and 2017, the numbers were such that the Government theoretically could have been led by National or Labour.
New Zealand First held the balance of power in all three elections although it did not negotiate with National in 2005 – only Labour.
In 1996 and in 2017, New Zealand First conducted parallel negotiations with National and Labour and extracted large policy concessions, including getting New Zealand First leader Winston Peter appointed Treasurer in 1996 and getting a $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund after the last election.
Arrangements have varied between formal coalitions, support agreements and memorandums of understanding. Support agreements can include ministerial positions outside cabinet.
The one pre-requisite is that no matter what the governing arrangements, before swearing in a Government, the Governor-General has to be sure the Government would win a confidence vote in Parliament. The first principle of politics is to know how to count.
It is also possible for big parties to do deals with parties they don't even need for votes, as National's John Key did with the Maori Party for three terms.
It is possible that a majority Labour government could still have a support agreement with the Green Party including ministers outside cabinet.
Ministers outside cabinet have greater freedom to distance themselves from cabinet decisions.
The following are potential combinations this election and assume that Labour and National would not work together, the Greens would not support National and Act would not support Labour.
The possibility of New Zealand First working with National is highly unlikely, given that the National caucus has agreed not to, but two scenarios involving the parties are included to indicate what it would take, numbers wise.
Green Party co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The combinations that include the Maori Party and Act assume that they would win an electorate if they fell below the five percent threshold.
LABOUR A single party government is a real possibility this time given the popularity of incumbent Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during management of Covid-19 has soared. Eg, Labour 62; Greens 7, National 43, Act 8.
LABOUR AND THE GREENS If Labour had to govern in coalition with any party, its unstated preference would be the Green Party because it would agree to more Labour policies than any other party. Eg, Labour 57, Greens 6; National 49, Act 8.
LABOUR, NZ FIRST AND THE GREENS This combination would be a repeat of the current governing arrangement of a Labour-New Zealand First minority coalition government, supported by the Green Party on confidence and supply.Eg, Labour 54, Greens 6, NZ First 6; National 47, Act 7.
LABOUR, THE GREENS AND THE MAORI PARTY Labour and the Greens combined could just fall short of a majority and could negotiate with a small Maori Party to get over 61 seats if the Maori Party were to win an electorate seat. Eg, Labour 53, Greens 7, Maori Party 1; National 51, Act 8.
LABOUR AND NZ FIRST This coalition would be possible if New Zealand First returned to Parliament but the Green Party fell short of the five per cent threshold and did not win an electorate seat. Eg, Labour 56, NZ First 7; National 49, Act 7, Maori Party 1.
New Zealand First leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Photo / Mark Mitchell
LABOUR AND THE MAORI PARTY This would be possible if the Greens and New Zealand First did not make it back to Parliament, Labour fell just shy of a majority and the Maori Party won an electorate seat. Eg Labour 60, Maori Party 1; National 52, Act 7.
LABOUR, NZ FIRST AND THE MAORI PARTY This would be possible if the Green Party did not make it back to Parliament, Labour and New Zealand First did not have quite enough for a majority coalition and the Maori Party became a support partner. Eg, Labour 53, NZ First 7, Maori Party 1; National 51, Act 7.
NATIONAL AND ACT This coalition could be possible if there were only three parties in Parliament after the election and National and Act together got a higher party vote than Labour. Eg, National 53, Act 8; Labour 59.
Act leader and Epsom MP David Seymour. Photo / Mark Mitchell
NATIONAL, ACT AND THE MAORI PARTY This combination would be possible if both New Zealand First and the Greens were voted out at the election and the Maori Party was needed to complete a majority. Eg, National 52, Act 8, Maori 1; Labour 59.
NATIONAL, NZ FIRST AND ACT This centre-right combination is an unlikely but theoretically it is possible that National and New Zealand First could form a minority coalition, supported on confidence and supply by Act. Eg, National 49, NZ First 7, Act 7; Labour 56, Maori Party 1.
NATIONAL AND NZ FIRST This combination is highly unlikely but possible if the gap between National and Labour disappeared, New Zealand First got fractionally more than Act and the Greens disappeared. Eg, National 54, NZ First 7; Act 5, Labour 54.
