Six months ago the Opportunities Party leader would not have placed bets on making it into Parliament - but as his support base grows so too does his confidence, even as he rules out standing in Epsom.
"As we sit here today, I'd go 70:30 [of making 5 per cent]," said Gareth Morgan. "It's just what I feel."
His party has 12 candidates standing in an electorate, barring one expected to be announced for Epsom in the coming week.
"We will probably stand somebody, but it won't be me," he told the Herald. "I said from day one I don't want to stand in an electorate and nothing has changed."
"My interest is in national, political and social issues, I don't have any allegiance to a particular electorate, so I'm just not an appropriate person to present an electorate."
Of the named Top candidates, four were standing in Auckland, one in Hamilton and one in Wellington.
The former economist who, with his son, made a fortune from the sale of TradeMe, launched Top on November 4 last year with a core group of just seven supporters.
In the 265 days since he's travelled a total 14,000km and spoken at 37 events in towns and cities around New Zealand. The Herald, attended two of his talks this week in Albany and Mt Albert, where about 100 people gathered each time to hear what Morgan had to say.
From these talks Top has grown to 3500 members and 600 volunteers. On social media is a following of 35,919 likes on Morgan's personal page and 12,732 for the party - how many of these are faithful supporters as opposed to casual observers is unclear.
Meanwhile the TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll in early July put Top support at one per cent.
Massey University Professor of Politics, Richard Shaw, said based on this Top was still about 100,000 votes off the five per cent threshold - a "big ask" for any new party.
He said a candidate in Epsom would be the logical option.
"If he stands a candidate in Epsom, that gives him a focus, it changes the tactical and strategical requirements to get into the House."
Shaw said it was interesting seeing Top pull large crowds at the roadshow events.
"Part of his appeal is he is an anti-establishment, small 'p' politician. He wants to influence things, but is not seeking power."
Morgan repeatedly tells the crowds he is not there to play "tribal politics" but to implement policy he believed would work.
The headline act of the 13 Top policies is tax reform - what Morgan labelled as the "big kahuna" and the one that appeared to create the biggest ripples of public discomfort.
This would see tax rates cut by a third and tax imposed on productive assets, including the family home, which Morgan believed would make 80 per cent of people better off and would put money back into the economy.
Morgan said for those, like the elderly, who did not have liquid assets, tax would be "mortgaged" with IRD and only once they were financially able, or when they had "carked it" would this be paid.
"When it was first launched the major response was 'how can this guy seriously expect to be elected when he is going to tax us for living in our own house? He's mad.'"
But Morgan told the crowds it made no sense that it was the rich who paid minimal tax.
"One of the things I discovered when I first got a windfall of money, was how money makes money."
Top also proposed halving superannuation of the most wealthy retirees in the country - from which Morgan estimated he would get the $3 billion needed to help pay for the universal basic income that would give families with young children $200 each week.
The Opportunities Party leader Gareth Morgan address people during a election campaign meeting held in Albany. Photo: NZH/Dean Purcell
Top also proposed policies to improve the quality of migrants arriving in New Zealand, to legalise cannabis, raise the drinking age to 20, build civic engagement and clean up the environment.
The basis of these policies, Morgan said, was sound research.
"This is not stuff Gareth Morgan has gone off to a dark room and dreamed up, this is essentially the consensus of the research, policy and advisory communities in New Zealand and in some cases across the international community.
"There's no political filter to this stuff, you just get given it warts and all."
It is this economic research combined with his lack of political prose many have cited as the reason they were at least intrigued, if not in complete support of the Top leader.
North Shore resident, Stacey Porter, 45, liked Top had a "think-tank" behind it.
She was torn between it and the Greens, but having someone with a policy mindset as opposed to a political one was something she found attractive.
"I like the notion we should expect more of our politicians that they should be testing things, before they enact it."
Nathan Jolly, 45, who was leaning towards Top, said: "We've had a bit of a dearth in terms of thinking policies" and hoped Morgan's team would be the one to do it.
Not all were convinced and some found his economic prose difficult to digest.
Bruce, 74, knew nothing of Top's policies before he attended one of Morgan's roadshows and afterwards said they were "confusing".
"I'm much more interested in trying to find someone who is going to stand up as a shining light that I can vote for, I'm not sure he's done that for me yet. I hope he does."
But he was disillusioned with National and was looking for an alternative.
Top's headline policies
Tax reform
Tax rates on salaries and wages would be slashed by a third, and owners of assets would pay more. Top claims this would make 80 per cent of the public better off and the 20 per cent that wouldn't be could afford it. Those without liquid assets would have a "mortgage" with IRD that they could pay off once able, or they died.
Smarter immigration
Top said this was all about bringing in migrants who can improve New Zealand's standard of living. If you can improve it "we welcome you. If not, thanks, but no thanks."
To make this happen the party proposed reforming the study-to-work residency programme, allowing skilled migrants in on a trial basis and letting them stay if they find skilled work that's of demonstrable benefit and develop business, high-skilled visas.
Top would means-test New Zealand Super, meaning retirees earning more than $50,000 would not get any additional income from superannuation. The money from this will go towards the policy below.
Thriving families and UBI
All families with young children would be given $200 a week. All retirees will also get $200 a week, and those of greater need would be able to top up to the New Zealand Superannuation level by a further $7500 a year.
