The Conservative Party is within a whisker of the 5 per cent threshold in the latest TV3 poll, sitting on 4.7 per cent, up 0.5 points, but its rival party New Zealand First remains over it, at 5.9 per cent.
New Zealand First would have 7 MPs and Conservatives would have none unless it won an electorate seat.
National is up slightly to 46.7 per cent and would not be able to govern alone.
It would be able to govern with a bare majority if all of its current support partners, Act, United Future and the Maori Party, each kept an electorate seat.
However, National would be able to form a government comfortably with just New Zealand First.