The decision to go to police over the cup of tea taping was made by Prime Minister John Key, says a National Party insider.
Matthew Hooton believes Key made the decision as a matter of principle. He then relied on campaign manager Steven Joyce and chief of staff Wayne Eagleson to put a structure around his impulse.
A plan emerged to poll the public to find if they supported the Prime Minister and to then act on the research by walking out on a media conference. Hooton says the structure supported Key's visceral reaction to discovering the existence of the recording.
"The press gallery often forgets that the Prime Minister is going to be much closer to the public and public attitudes - especially this Prime Minister. John Key meets conservatively 1000 New Zealanders every week. All the pundits were wrong. He got it right and everyone else got it wrong."
But Otago University political scientist Dr Bryce Edwards says the impact is yet to hit Key. "Their whole handling of it has been reprehensible and wrong," says Edwards.