El Nino continues to strengthen

Scorched farming area near Dannevirk. Photo / Christine McKay

Before I start my blog today I want to share some amazing videos with you - of a meteor that roared over America last week and literally turned night into day. The first time I saw the clip I thought it was a fake but dozens have now emerged all showing the same thing. I wish it had happened while

I was over there! Click here to see the videos.

Back home - and things are starting to dry up. Those westerlies won't quit and while temperatures surge over 30 degrees in the South Island, rainfall is barely making a dent in the North Island.

So, are we heading into a drought? Well, it's quite possible some areas are. All the indicators are pointing towards El Nino continuing to strengthen this summer. That means the westerly flow over the country will continue.

This is bad news for farmers in the east who have had several droughts in a row.

With El Nino we tend to have highs in the Tasman Sea which block big rain bearing lows/fronts from crossing the country. The only fronts that do seem to impact the country come from the deep south which means the South Island's West Coast gets a good ol' hammering of rain but moisture is all gone by the time the clouds cross the Southern Alps - or further north, the Tararuas or Hawkes Bay Ranges.

Water tanks around Auckland and Northland are drying up and I've had a number of emails saying people literally only have a couple weeks of water left.

More westerlies tend to mean cooler, cloudier and windier weather for western areas (which includes Auckland I'm afraid) and hotter, drier and windier

weather to those in the east. In fact, think of the weather we've had over the last week and possibly times it by another three months.

Now before I completely depress you, keep in mind this is just the general weather pattern - and we may still have weeks and weeks of clear blue skies in the west and some good rainfall in the east.

Another positive spin I like to put on El Nino is that it really does bring the best weather to our most popular tourists spots. Eastern areas tend to be hotter and sunnier - so that includes the Bay of Islands, eastern Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Canterbury, Nelson.

The sou'west flow we're in now is actually going to increase this week - becoming strong in some places around Thursday or Friday ahead of a new low.

Some rain may be on the way for Sunday in the north.

There is a little talk of some Tasman Sea lows killing off the south west flow in early December. We'll have to wait and see.

For now - plan on a good summer holiday. And for those who rely on rain water in the east, I'd start looking at your back up plans.

Philip Duncan

Pictured above: Scorched farming area near Dannevirke. Photo / Christine McKay