The US, in particular, has been working on strengthening ties between countries in our wider region such as Japan and South Korea as a balance against China’s influence. The Biden Administration wooed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a four-day state visit in June.
It’s hard to see how Washington’s strategy of keeping China in check works without India - the world’s most populous country. It’s a huge regional and growing global power, and a credible counter-weight to China on security, in trade, technological know-how and production.
The relationship between Canada and India was under some strain before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a speech in Parliament on Tuesday about “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the slaying of Nijjar by masked gunmen.
Nijjar was an Indian-born Canadian citizen accused by India of campaigning for Sikh independence in Punjab, and also having links to terrorism, which he denied. People of Indian origin make up 3.7 per cent of Canada’s population. India has accused Canada for years of sheltering Sikh separatists.
The background to the death stretches back to the 1970s and 80s when a violent insurgency and crackdown killed thousands of people in India and former prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated. The insurgency has long ended but Indian authorities remain wary.
By Wednesday Trudeau was trying to calm the storm saying Canada was “not looking to provoke or escalate”.
He added: “We are simply laying out the facts as we understand them and we want to work with the government of India to lay everything clear and to ensure there are proper processes. India and the government of India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness.”
On India’s side, New Delhi warned its citizens to “exercise utmost caution” when travelling to Canada.
The explosiveness of the allegations remain.
If true it would amount to a lethal covert agency operation conducted within the borders of a friendly, democratic Western G7 country by a partner nation. The most recent comparable incidents, such as the poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Britain in 2018, have been blamed on adversarial Russia.
Trudeau and Modi discussed the issue at the G20 summit and days later Canada cancelled a trade mission to India. The countries have been in talks about a free trade agreement.
New Zealand’s response has been in keeping with Five Eyes partners.
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta said it would be of “serious concern” if Trudeau’s claims were proven to be true. The US and Australia had said separately that they were “deeply concerned” and Britain called the allegations “serious”.
It’s muted language because of what’s at stake and the fact it’s an investigation with legal implications.
New Zealand’s two major political party leaders are keen to improve ties, and especially trade, with India to diversify from heavy reliance on China.
This week’s tensions show that tremors can rock seemingly stable international ties.
